The market has risen a little abnormally recently.

The pullback that everyone thought was not interesting.

National policy continues to attack the market, but does not fall, blindly filling the gap on February 3.

It can be seen that no one in the market can predict, and no one should play smart with the market.

There is basically no operation during this period of time, and the last few positions have been used up in those days.

At that time, I wrote an article, "I only buy these two stocks these days!" "it has attracted a lot of attention.

In fact, the two stocks mentioned in the article are only part of my position, and I don't know why many friends think I have only these two stocks.

Among them, many friends also followed the investment in the securities industry, resulting in a good return in just a few days, although it can not be compared with the increase of hot stocks, but at least everyone earns.

When you make money, there is a point for discussion.Those who have bought it will ask when to sell it, and those who have not bought it will ask if they can still buy it.

Therefore, today I will concentrate on my answer.

First of all, I think the biggest reason why you have these questions is that you have not dredged up the investment logic behind it. And because of that,Let me first talk about why I am optimistic about this industry and the logic behind me.

1. Five years have passed since the 15-year bull market, and the market was originally a bear market. coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the overall brokerage industry is very cheap, and even after the slump, it has begun to enter an undervalued area.

2. According to the return test of historical bull and bear data, the cycle of cattle and bears is generally7~8年In terms of the cost of time, now this industry, both in terms of probability and odds,Opportunities outweigh risks.

3. Since last year, everyone should have found that various financial reforms have been introduced intensively and accelerated, such as Science and Technology Innovation Board, gem, and even the day before yesterday.RefinancingDon't underestimate these reforms. These reforms, to put it bluntly, are forThe securities firm broadens the business boundary, the business margin broadens, the money comes.

4，The balance of finance and finance has increased.. In August 1919, the scope of the two financing targets was expanded to 1600 from 950. at the same time, a mandatory regulatory guidance requirement to maintain a guarantee ratio of 130% was removed, making it more market-oriented.

And the balance of the two financial institutions is positively related to the activity of the market.

Therefore, the two financial institutions are the performance of securities firms.Barometer.

As of December 27, 2019, the balance of margin trading exceeded 1.013355 trillion yuan, an increase of 34.09 percent over the same period last year.

The increase and expansion of the balance of the two financial institutions can drive the average daily trading volume of the market, and one of its incremental funds will also significantly drive the market, which will be directly converted into the growth of income from securities trading as an agent, which adds an increment to the profits of securities firms.

5. Since the national reform, the securities industry has achieved initial results. The overall performance of securities firms in 2019 is brilliant. According to the statistics of the China Securities Industry Association, in the first three quarters of 2019, the operating income of 131 securities firms in the securities industry totaled 261.1 billion yuan, an increase of 38 percent over the same period last year, and net profit reached 93.1 billion yuan, an increase of 88 percent over the same period last year. According to the financial statistics of 36 listed securities firms, the total operating income in the first three quarters was 274.4 billion yuan, an increase of 47.5% over the same period last year, and the net profit of return to the mother was 79.7 billion yuan, an increase of 65% over the same period last year. This shows that our reform is more or less effective, or at least plays a role in promoting the development of securities firms.The future is promising.

All of theseIt is the big logic of investing in the brokerage industry in my opinion.

In my opinion, it is not enough to satisfy any of the above points, and the most terrible thing is to meet all of them, which just creates the current investment opportunities.

For example, the new policy on financing issued the day before yesterday, I think this is just the beginning. 2020 is the big year of securities reform, and there will still be a lot of policies in the future and even in the future.

However, there is one point that I think will have an impact on the brokerage industry, that is, the complete abolition of restrictions on the business scope of foreign-funded securities companies in China and the introduction of foreign investment banks will inevitably lead to competition in the industry, and the situation of sitting back and waiting for death will certainly be affected. although there is pressure for the industry to add new blood, it is bound to grow, which I am not sure about.

Therefore, although I told me from the perspective of probability and odds that the next article in the brokerage industry would be bright, I was also afraid that the introduction of foreign investment banks or other uncertain factors would bring uncertainty. (for example, the leading brokerage leader has been downgraded frequently recently, so I choose to invest.ETF, a securities firm.

A compromise choice, a compromise investment, after all, the industry index, than the relative risk of individual stocks, and now there are low valuations, as a support, why not.

The most important thing is that if everyone wants to, you go through history, its increase does not necessarily lose to individual stocks.

In the eyes of outsiders, this thing may not be high-end, but I am more pragmatic, in my view is the pursuit of the final income, how do you care how I invest?

Of course, if there are friends who are addicted to investment cleanliness, they have to choose individual stocks.I only suggest choosing the leading brokerage.(top five in China) the reason is very simple: the reform of the financial market will eventually focus on the leader.

Generally speaking, all the above can be seen that there are actually a lot of interesting points in the future brokerage industry, but how far is the future? A year? Two years? Or three years? We can't quantify these specifically, after all, the game is just beginning.

After understanding my above logic, let's solve the problem of whether we should buy or sell.

After rising for more than a week, the securities industry has been out of the undervalued area from the point of view of valuation, but has not yet entered the historical median.

Based on the current valuation review, it is clear that the best time has been missed.

In other words, current position buying is historically likely to lose money in the coming year.

So, can we invest now?

I think it can, after all, it hasn't broken the median yet. But there is definitely no one at this time.To the point where you can sleep heavily.。

We need to be clear about this. What are we investing for? It's just for peace of mind.

You can play, but you must give yourself a way out and leave a basin below to pick it up.

When will it be sold?

In my opinion, there are only a few kinds of sales:

1, rise to their own psychological expectations.

2, there are better choices.

3, the valuation is no longer attractive, reduce positions in batches.

4. Set a stop-loss rate for yourself.

Among these four points, I think that although the first two points are right, they can be regarded as correct nonsense or useless.

Because in the actual operation, human nature is greedy, what is their own psychological expectation? This expectation will be boosted a little as the stock rises. Most people know that it is safe to fall into the bag, but few people can do it.

Second,There's a better choice.This standard is also relatively difficult to achieve in actual investments. very often, it is difficult for us to identify what is good and what is bad. in fact, when a stock has been rising, we tend to think that our buttocks decide our heads. This is a good target.

Therefore, my own commonly used methods are the latter two.

For example, the third kind.Valuations are no longer attractive and positions are reduced in batches.I usually anchor at the median. For the securities industry, that is, probably.1.8~1.9pbStart around, reduce positions in batches, if not, take it, and fall to the undervalued area to absorb the chips.

But one of the biggest problems with this is that the brokerage industry is quite special. It can be said to be the weather vane of the market. There is really no bottom line when it rises. The most important thing is that if there is a bull market, you will actually make less money because of the premature reduction of positions. But if there is still a bear market, you are likely to spit it back after earning 20%. Although it has fallen more and more undervalued, it is not reconciled after all.

That's why I added the fourth one.Set for yourselfStop lossReturn rate. At first glance, this method seems to be incompatible with value investment, but it does not conflict, and this is a relatively easy method to use. for example, now that its profit rate is 10%, then you set the return to 5% to sell. If it continues to rise, for example, to 15%, then you set it to sell at a rate that falls to 10%.

Ps: of course, the stop-loss return here is set according to your preference, and you can also set 8% or 13% to sell.

It's very simple, anyway, it's getting higher and higher. You set it up.止损Return rateThe higher it should be. In doing so, we are locking in profits to a great extent.

I think the above four methods will enlighten you. After all, buying is buying, and selling is also a discipline.

Generally speaking, the securities industry is an industry that completely follows the market fluctuations. It is precisely because of this that the fluctuation of this industry is relatively large, and various trends in the market will affect its rise and fall.

But it is precisely because of its flexibility that it makes us invest in it with such a trace of charm.

I like it.