银河证券则指出，2024年以来，此前压制工业有色金属的两大宏观逻辑均已出现了根本性的转变，海外美联储在2024年9月首次降息，由加息周期转而进入降息周期。国内9月底政策转变，政府各部门出台货币、财政、资本市场、消费、房地产等扶持政策，支撑国内经济的稳增长，尤其是财政部出台近几年未有的大规模的财政刺激政策，化解地方债务、收购土地储备与存量房、支持大规模设备更新与消费品以旧换新，有望加快国内经济复苏节奏，改善房地产、汽车、家电、机械设备等下游终端需求，利好工业有色金属消费提升。Nonferrous metal stocks have collectively risen. As of the time of this report, Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600) is up 3.39%, trading at 4.88 HKD; CMOC Group Limited (03993) is up 3.13%, trading at 5.94 HKD; Zijin Mining Group (02899) is up 2.84%, trading at 15.92 HKD; CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) is up 2.64%, trading at 12.42 HKD.
According to the Zhito Finance App, nonferrous metal stocks have collectively risen. As of the time of this report, Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600) is up 3.39%, trading at 4.88 HKD; CMOC Group Limited (03993) is up 3.13%, trading at 5.94 HKD; Zijin Mining Group (02899) is up 2.84%, trading at 15.92 HKD; CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) is up 2.64%, trading at 12.42 HKD.
On the news front, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work for 2025. CITIC SEC stated that the meeting released more positive policy signals and a better expectation for improvements in the real economy is likely to boost the prices of upstream resource products, leading the sector to rebound. It is recommended to focus on three main lines: expectations of price increases due to fundamental improvements in General Steel, coking coal, copper, aluminum, and basic metals, chemicals with strong consumer attributes; dividend varieties such as Crude Oil Product and Thermal Coal under favorable market liquidity; and growth varieties such as lithium and rare earths under the warming market style.
Galaxy Securities pointed out that since 2024, the two major macroeconomic logics that previously suppressed industrial nonferrous metals have undergone fundamental changes. The overseas Federal Reserve is set to lower interest rates for the first time in September 2024, transitioning from a rate hike cycle to a rate cut cycle. Domestically, policy changes at the end of September, with government departments implementing monetary, fiscal, capital market, consumer, and real estate support policies to support stable economic growth in the country, especially with the Ministry of Finance launching large-scale fiscal stimulus policies not seen in recent years to resolve local debts, acquire land reserves and existing properties, support large-scale equipment updates, and promote the exchange of old consumer goods for new ones. This is expected to accelerate the pace of domestic economic recovery and improve downstream terminal demand in Real Estate, Autos, home appliances, and Machinery, which is bullish for the consumption of industrial nonferrous metals.
