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一位湖北官员的疫情日记:疫情后,经济发展有哪些新空间

The epidemic diary of an official in Hubei: what is the new space for economic development after the epidemic?

盒饭财经 ·  Feb 18, 2020 10:25

Author / Professor and Doctor of Ye Qing Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

Deputy Director of Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics

Source / lunch box finance (ID:daxiongfan)

At present, enterprises have been hit hard. After the control of the epidemic, enterprises have to rely on themselves to survive.(reduce cost)Second, rely on the government.

The support of the Government is divided into three parts:Local governments, ministries and commissions, the central government.

At present, most provinces, cities and autonomous regions have issued assistance policies. For example, there are 20 in Chongqing and 30 in Zhejiang. On the 7th, Shenzhen issued 16 articles, directly reducing the burden on enterprises by more than 60 billion yuan by means of reduction, subsidy and suspension of payment. Of this total, financial support exceeded 10 billion yuan.

There are also 18 articles in Hubei, which are divided into four parts. If we carefully analyze the policies of various localities, we can find a foothold.

Lighten the burden by 5 points:The price of water, electricity and gas will be reduced by 10-30%, rent, contract extension, reduction of four fees, and settlement of arrears.

Six points of financial support:We will continue to increase loans, reduce interest rates, reduce reguarantee fees, increase tolerance for non-performing loans by 3 percentage points, offer 50-30% financial discount, and lower listing conditions for direct financing.

Finance and tax support three points:Special funds for high-quality development, reduction or reduction of urban land use tax, property tax, and deferred payment of taxes shall not exceed 3 months at most.

Wangang supports 4 points:Negotiate collectively with the staff and workers(negotiation of salary, adjustment of working hours, rotation and rest, on-the-job training)Hold over the payment of old-age insurance, unemployment insurance and industrial injury insurance premiums(not more than 6 months)Enterprises with a layoff rate of no more than 5.5% will return 70% of the unemployment insurance premiums actually paid last year, and enterprises that produce and distribute materials urgently needed for epidemic prevention and control during the Spring Festival may be given an one-time subsidy of 2000 yuan per person.

Various ministries also supported it.

For example, the CSRC has made every effort to do a good job in fighting the epidemic, supporting the economy, and preventing risks by giving priority to supporting areas with severe epidemics and corporate financing related to fighting the epidemic.

As of Feb. 14, bonds have been issued through the green channel in Wuhan Contemporary Mingcheng, Wuhan Sishui and Xiangyang Dongjin Guotou in Hubei Province, with a planned financing scale of 2.8 billion yuan, 10 corporate bonds and one asset-backed securities product (ABS) issuance, totaling 11.23 billion yuan. Two Hubei enterprises have been approved to issue bonds, and several other special bonds to fight the epidemic are being planned to be issued.

For the record of medical and health private equity funds and venture capital funds, the CSRC has also opened up a green channel to guide more social funds to enterprises producing anti-epidemic materials. According to incomplete statistics, by February 12, there were 46 anti-epidemic projects of equity and venture capital funds, with a total amount of 17.046 billion yuan.

However, what is more important is that the central government should make great efforts to build a strong public service industry. This is not only our deficiency, but also the biggest lesson of COVID-19 this time.

In history, the United States also got out of the economic crisis by investing in public works.

On October 24, 1929, the American economy was caught in the quagmire of economic crisis, and the thriving American society was gradually replaced by the desolate scene of inventory accumulation, workers losing their jobs and shop closures. 86000 businesses went bankrupt, 5500 banks failed, the national financial world was suffocated, and years of hard savings of millions of Americans went down the drain. GNP dropped sharply from US $104.4 billion when the crisis broke out to US $74.2 billion in 1933, the number of unemployed soared from less than 1.5 million to more than 17 million, accounting for more than 1/4 of the entire labor force, and the overall economic level fell back to 1913.

At this time, Roosevelt's New deal focused on the revitalization of public services.

Roosevelt's New deal began in 1933 and ended in 1941.The main measures include seven major policies.Among them, great efforts have been made to build public works projects.

In 1935, the United States established the Engineering Program Agency at a cost of 10.5 billion yuan, building 122000 houses, 1.03 million kilometers of new roads, 77000 bridges, 285 airports and 330000 kilometers of sewers. It provided jobs for 3.8 million workers in 1938, accounting for about 1 percent of the unemployed.

The industrial added value of the United States in 2018 was about $2.9752 trillion, while that of China was about $4.61148 trillion, 1.55 times that of the United States in the same period.

In 2018, the added value of China's primary and secondary industries is as high as 6.509127 trillion US dollars, while that of the United States is about 3.979332 trillion US dollars-China is close to 1.64 times that of the United States.

The United States has an absolute lead in the tertiary industry-- the added value of the tertiary industry reached 16.514747 trillion US dollars in 2018.(more than the total GDP of the whole of China), which is about 80.6% of its total GDP.

The added value of China's tertiary industry is about 46.9575 trillion yuan, equivalent to US $7.09606 trillion, which is about 52.16% of the total GDP-only about 42.97% of the added value of the US tertiary industry in the same period. On the contrary, the added value of the tertiary industry in the United States is 2.33 times that of China's tertiary industry.

From the perspective of the large health industrial structure of the United States, it is divided into four parts.Family and community health services account for about 50%, hospital medical services account for 19%, medical commodities account for 14%, and health risk management accounts for 11%.On the whole, the development of health care and services in the United States is more mature.

However, China's health industry is still based on"Hospital medical services, medical commodities" as the mainIt accounts for 64% of the total, while the United States accounts for less than 35% of the total.

The public service industry has the characteristics of non-profit, non-exclusivity and non-competitiveness.

In the fields of wholesale and retail, warehousing and logistics, accommodation and catering, there is not a big gap between China and developed countries.

Industries with an unusually large gap with developed countries are mainly concentrated in four areas:

One is in the field of information and communications.

Second, in the field of real estate.

Third, in the areas of professional, scientific and technical activities, administrative and auxiliary activitiesFor example, law firms, accounting firms, independent scientific research institutions and so on.

Fourth, social security, education, medical care, public management, national defense and other fields.

Therefore, the new development space of China's economic development lies in the service industry.

After the end of the epidemic, it is suggested that the central government should launch a plan for the revitalization of public services as the focus of the 14th five-year Plan.

Edit / Grace

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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