GTJA's chief strategist, Fang Yi, stated that the bottom of the Chinese stock market has already appeared, and the conditions for a "transformational bull market" are forming. He emphasized that first, after a prolonged period of continuous adjustment, pessimistic expectations and microstructural clearance are prerequisites for valuation elasticity in the stock market; second, the positive shift in the decision-making level towards reversing the economic situation and supporting the Capital Markets is an important cornerstone for upward adjustments in long-term expectations, breaking free from "bearish thinking" and elevating the stock market bottom; third, the reform of the Capital Markets enhances shareholder returns, while resolving debts, promoting reforms, and stabilizing asset prices are expected to constitute the new "three arrows" of China's economic development, leading to the formation of a transformational bull market in the Chinese stock market.

Fang Yi stated that the key driving force behind the market comes from the decline in risk-free interest rates and an increase in risk appetite, with the expectation that upgrades in economic forecasts may occur in the second half of next year; the stock market is expected to show an N-shaped rhythm in the medium term. In welcoming the "transformational bull market," the focus is on growth; attention should be paid to the value restoration of the real estate chain, investing overseas, and consumer spending. The key investment themes for 2025 are "technological innovation" and "financial strength." First, bullish on technology growth stocks that are expected to hit the bottom of the production cycle: Semiconductors/New energy/Computer innovation machinery/Automobiles, and non-banking sectors benefiting from increased wealth management and market demand; second, the reversal of the real estate crisis: under the objective of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," real estate policies are expected to continue to loosen, benefiting real estate/construction/kitchen appliances/furniture. Third, with the decline in interest rates and increasing risks, high dividends still present periodic opportunities: telecommunications operators/Railway Highways, etc. Additionally, in 2025, there is optimism regarding the Manufacturing sector with industrial trends and business opportunities, as well as the cultural overseas market and self-consumption.

Furthermore, Huang Runan, joint chief macro analyst at GTJA, pointed out that the macro environment domestically and internationally in 2025 has characteristics of continuity and transition: from an overseas perspective, major global economies, except for Japan, have entered a rate-cutting cycle, and liquidity is expected to continue improving; on the other hand, elections in multiple countries have concluded, and great power competition has entered a new phase. Domestically, 2025 marks the concluding year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which means there are still high expectations for economic growth; at the same time, it is also the starting year for the 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session's "Five-Year Plan," with medium to long-term reforms in finance and taxation set to commence.

He stated that debt resolution is the first move of fiscal policy, and only after alleviating local hidden debt risks can central authorities leverage their space. The transition from investment-type fiscal policies to security-type fiscal policies is a necessary path, with expectations that the fiscal deficit rate within the budget for 2025 will need to increase from 3% in 2024 to between 3.6% and 4%, with the broad deficit rate expected to rise by approximately 1.5%. From two angles to estimate the required increment in fiscal scale: first, to compensate for the loss of approximately 1.5 trillion yuan in export revenues resulting from increased tariffs, and second, to expand social security coverage and enhance public service levels, requiring an annual increase of about 1 trillion yuan in first-account expenditures over the next five years. It is anticipated that the 2025 GDP growth target will still be set at around 5%, but there may be some flexibility regarding the degree of achievement.