GTJA's Chief Analyst Chen Ximiao stated that looking ahead to 2025, the Hong Kong stock market will continue to face disruptive factors from the external environment, revolving around the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace under overseas inflation, strong dollar, tariff-related policy restrictions, and ongoing great power friction. However, the domestic policy direction is clear, relying on fiscal stimulus to bolster economic expectations is likely to stabilize, and there is momentum for improvement in corporate profits at the molecular end.Industry ChainCapacity for response has improved.

She indicated that the sensitivity of the Hong Kong stock market to external shocks is expected to decrease in 2025, and there should be greater emphasis on returning to focus on its own logic. The forecast for the Hong Kong stock market trend in 2025 is primarily an N-shaped upward oscillation pattern, with numerous flexible opportunities in the phase. Active search for structure should continue in 2025, prioritizing a barbell strategy with weight shifts toward both ends, while placing more emphasis on allocation rhythm, and also on the recovery opportunities for certain domestic demand products.

Chen stated that the asset allocation approach for Hong Kong stocks should increasingly favor internal certainties, emphasizing high-quality Hong Kong stock assets that can first emerge with growth logic, while related varieties benefiting from domestic demand improvements present investment opportunities. Structurally, industries that can first achieve stability and growth amidst economic domestic circulation and de-globalization trends are expected to experience repair and revaluation: industry prosperity recovery, strengthened internal logic, and enhanced autonomous controllability. From a style perspective, throughout the year, there is a strong bullish outlook for undervalued quality growth, with high dividends still possessing mid-term allocation value, but in 2025, high dividends will require attention to rhythm.