12月11日周三，上证报在题为《理性看待债市大涨 莫忽视背后风险》的文章中表示，投资者在享受债市大涨带来的红利之时，也须保持一份理性，莫忽视背后风险：The Shanghai Securities Journal article reminds that the market has fully anticipated the bond market trends. If future policy implementation deviates from expectations, there may be a significant potential for market adjustments. Another article from Shanghai Securities Journal cites analysis that, referring to the bond market pricing habits since July, the 10-year government bond yield is generally determined using an OMO rate plus an additional 40 to 50 basis points as a phased interest rate lower limit. In the future, it can be roughly considered that 'OMO rate + 45 basis points' will serve as the new pricing 'anchor' for the bond market.
The expectation of "moderate easing" drives mid- to long-term Bonds yields to accelerate downward, and in response, the Shanghai Securities Journal published a warning about the risks.
On Tuesday, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds fell by 7.5 BP, reaching a low of 1.8225% during the session, continuing to set a historical low, with a cumulative decline of 10 BP over two trading days and a decrease of 15 BP within a week.
On Wednesday, December 11, the Shanghai Securities Journal published an article titled "Rationally Viewing the Surge in the Bond Market, Don't Ignore the Risks Behind It," stating that while investors enjoy the dividends brought by the surge in the bond market, they must also maintain a sense of rationality and not overlook the risks behind it.
Historical experience shows that after a clear shift in monetary policy, the trading logic of the bond market gradually transitions from interest rate declines caused by monetary policy easing to interest rate increases driven by fundamental improvements, with the equity market also continuously rising. Looking back, after China proposed a "moderate easing monetary policy" at the end of 2008, the bond market first followed the downward trend of monetary easing, and after a rebound in fundamentals, the yields turned upward, while the equity market ushered in a round of rising行情.
The article points out that from the perspective of economic fundamentals, recent economic data has shown improvement, while the recent liquidity has tightened, and investors should pay timely attention to the disturbances that liquidity brings to the market. In addition, the duration of the interest rate bond Fund is currently at a high level, increasing the risk of market adjustments, while the degree of volatility is also increasing.
The article warns that the market has fully priced in expectations for the bond market. If there is a significant gap between future policy implementation and expectations, the market may experience significant adjustments. Most Financial Institutions are long in the bond market, and in situations where interest rates are on a unilateral upward trend without hedging tools, once the market shows clear disturbances, caution should be taken regarding the risk of a stampede.
As the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds enters the "1" era, bond investment urgently needs to find a "new anchor point."
In another article titled "Finding a New 'Anchor Point' for Bond Fund Investment," the Shanghai Securities Journal quotes a public Fixed Income Fund manager stating that the yield on 10-year government bonds has fallen below the one-year MLF interest rate, indicating that the role of the MLF interest rate as a policy interest rate is gradually weakening, and the bond market is looking for a new 'anchor point.'
The article cites analysis from Zhuyun Investment, stating that since the beginning of this year, the central bank's policy interest rates have gradually shifted from MLF to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate (OMO). Therefore, referencing the bond market pricing habits since July, the 10-year government bond yield is generally determined with OMO rates plus 40 to 50 basis points as the lower limit of interest rates. In the future, it can be roughly considered that 'OMO rate + 45 basis points' will be the new pricing 'anchor' for the bond market.
