渠道经营思路改变，积极拥抱高成长渠道。过去，公司采用以线下经销渠道为主，线上渠道为辅的销售模式，通过经销商覆盖现代零售渠道、传统零售渠道和特殊渠道。截至2024H1 公司线下经销渠道占比超95%。然而2024Q3 以来，公司在山姆渠道取得较大进展，我们认为当前公司渠道经营思路发生转变，开始积极拥抱新兴成长性渠道，通过直营的方式与山姆等会员店、零食量贩系统展开合作。Key investment points:
Leading domestic marinated snacks, products and brands are deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. The company is a leader in marinated snacks, focusing on the R&D, production and sales of marinated snack foods. It is known as the first stock of pickled pepper chicken claws. The product is outstanding, and the brand is deeply popular. According to world data, its pickled pepper chicken claw is a large single product of nearly 1 billion dollars, accounting for about 30% of the pickled pepper chicken claw industry. In addition to pickled pepper and chicken claws, the company is actively developing new products. The 2024Q1-3 pickled pepper chicken claw/pig skin crystal/bamboo shoot/chicken wings/dried tofu, peanuts/other main revenue accounts for 71%/7%/5%/4%/2%/1%/10%, respectively.
Newly peeled duck feet have become a hot product, and new products drive revenue growth. 2024Q3's revenue was +28% year over year, and the growth rate increased significantly compared to Q2. Among them, Phoenix Claw, Pig Skin Crystal, and other businesses achieved revenue of 0.23/0.02/0.07 billion yuan respectively, +3.6%/+17.2%/+1593% year-on-year, respectively. Revenue from other businesses increased dramatically, accounting for 20% of total revenue (only 2.3% for 2024Q1 and Q2), which is mainly due to the rapid release of the company's new duck palm products in the newly expanded Sam channel. In July 2024, the company's new boneless duck pap was launched on Sam. Currently, it is ranked second in Sam's dried pork belly ranking, with monthly sales exceeding 0.1 million pieces, and is expected to continue to contribute revenue in the future. The success of this boneless duck paw reflects the company's strong product development capabilities and category expansion capabilities.
Channel management ideas have changed, and high-growth channels have been actively embraced. In the past, the company adopted a sales model mainly based on offline distribution channels and online channels, and covered modern retail channels, traditional retail channels and special channels through dealers. As of 2024H1, the company's offline distribution channels account for more than 95%. However, since 2024Q3, the company has made great progress in Sam's channel. We believe that the current company's channel management ideas have changed, begun to actively embrace emerging growth channels, and cooperate with Sam and other member stores and snack sales systems through direct management.
Currently, membership channels and snack sales channels are developing rapidly, and there are certain channel dividends. Through channel expansion, the company is expected to achieve relatively rapid revenue growth. In addition, judging from the regional income structure, 2024Q1-3 accounts for 49%/27%/12%/5%/3%/1% in Southwest China/Northwest/North China/Northeast China respectively, and the southwest region accounts for about 1/2. The income gap between regions is large, and regions other than Southwest China have more room for growth.
The company's revenue and profit are expected to have high growth elasticity in 2025. Looking ahead, we believe that with the active coverage of new channels on the revenue side, such as the company's member store channels and snack mass sales channels, the company's revenue will have a high growth elasticity. Furthermore, the company's current online share is still low, and there is plenty of room for improvement in the future. On the profit side, according to China Customs statistics, the price of frozen chicken claws imported from 2024Q3 was -16.6%, and the cost dividend is expected to continue; currently, the revenue volume of member stores and snack sales systems is still small. These channels are characterized by low costs and low gross profit, which has a certain impact on the company's profitability in the short term, but with the release of scale effects brought about by the increase in revenue volume, the company's profitability is expected to continue to rise.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company is a leader in marinated snacks and is known as the number one stock in pickled pepper and chicken claws. Since 2024, channel management ideas have changed, and high-growth channels such as member store channels such as Sam and snack mass sales channels have begun to be actively embraced. Among them, 2024Q3's new boneless duck butts were quickly sold on Sam's channel. Looking ahead, we believe that the revenue side will have high growth elasticity with the active coverage of new channels; the profit side is expected to continue to increase as the scale effect brought about by the increase in revenue volume is released. We expect revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.155/1.48/1.76 billion yuan, respectively, +20%/+28%/+19%, respectively; net profit to mother will be 0.14/0.19/0.237 billion yuan, respectively, +21%/+35%/+25%, EPS 0.33/0.44/0.55 yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 33/24/19 times, respectively. The first coverage gives a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1) The company's new channel expansion falls short of expectations; 2) the company's new channel sales fall short of expectations; 3) the company's traditional channel sales are under pressure; 4) the risk of rising raw material prices; 5) the risk of fluctuating raw material prices due to exchange rate fluctuations; 6) production capacity investment falls short of expectations; 7) food safety risks; 8) the risk of stock price fluctuations in the secondary market, etc.
