汽车零部件、工业等板块内的企业持续提升对精冲材料的需求。2024-2025年，我们预计国内汽车行业对精冲材料的需求将达到90.8/105.0万吨。公司与慕贝尔、麦格纳、弗吉亚、法因图尔、法雷奥等常年维持稳定合作关系，产品广泛应用于车企如宝马、特斯拉等国内外整车厂。下游客户对精冲材料的性能要求高，公司产品技术指标水平已与国际龙头公司威尔斯产品相差无几，精冲材料行业为资本密集型和技术密集型行业，进入壁垒高，公司为精冲材料公司国内唯一上市公司，拥有更全面融资方式，有望在未来进一步拓展市场份额。Leading in fine drawn steel, production capacity expansion performance is expected to increase steadily.
The company is a leading domestic precision stamping special steel company. Its main products are steel, which is a fine blanking material in the automotive and industrial fields. Product processing technology is difficult, the barriers to entry into the industry are high, and the import substitution market is large. Based on the company's estimated sales volume guidelines for this year, we estimate that the company's production capacity is expected to be around 0.18 million tons this year. It raised production capacity of about 0.04 million tons (phase 1 project). It is expected to be completed by the end of 2024, and production capacity will be released in 2025.
Downstream demand for automobiles is stable, customer resources are high, and barriers to entry into the industry are high.
Companies in the automotive parts and industrial sectors continue to increase their demand for fine blanking materials. In 2024-2025, we expect the domestic automotive industry's demand for fine blanking materials to reach 0.908/1.05 million tons. The company maintains stable cooperative relationships with Mubel, Magna, Virginia, Feintour, Valeo, etc. all year round, and its products are widely used in domestic and foreign automakers such as BMW and Tesla. Downstream customers have high performance requirements for fine blanking materials. The technical index level of the company's products is not much different from Wells products, a leading international company. The fine blanking materials industry is a capital-intensive and technology-intensive industry with high entry barriers. The company is the only domestic listed company of Fine Blank Materials, which has more comprehensive financing methods, and is expected to further expand its market share in the future.
New production capacity will be released in 2025, and there is strong certainty about performance growth.
The first phase of the company's Anhui plant project is expected to be completed by the end of 2024, and production capacity is expected to be released in 2025. The design production capacity of the first phase of the project is about 0.04 million tons. According to the Anhui Development and Reform Commission's approval of the company's production capacity environment, the company's long-term production capacity in Anhui is planned to be around 0.15 million tons, and the company's production capacity is expanding in an orderly manner.
Profit prediction and investment advice:
The estimated 2024-2026 revenue for Xianglou New Materials will be 1.5/1.82/2.06 billion yuan, up 10%/22%/13% year on year; net profit to mother will be 0.202/0.266/0.302 billion yuan respectively, up 0.5%/32%/13% year on year. By the close of December 9, the corresponding PE was 29.27/22.18/19.55 times, respectively. Since the company is the only listed company among domestic companies that produce fine blanking materials, it has many advantages such as technology and cost, and was given a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: the progress of production capacity expansion falls short of the expected risk; the risk of customer development progress falling short of expectations; the risk of changes in raw material prices; the risk of high customer concentration.
