Despite an already strong run, Outbrain Inc. (NASDAQ:OB) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 27% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 56% in the last year.
Even after such a large jump in price, Outbrain may still be sending buy signals at present with its price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x, considering almost half of all companies in the Interactive Media and Services industry in the United States have P/S ratios greater than 1.3x and even P/S higher than 4x aren't out of the ordinary. However, the P/S might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
What Does Outbrain's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, Outbrain's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. The P/S ratio is probably low because investors think this poor revenue performance isn't going to get any better. So while you could say the stock is cheap, investors will be looking for improvement before they see it as good value.
If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Outbrain.Do Revenue Forecasts Match The Low P/S Ratio?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should underperform the industry for P/S ratios like Outbrain's to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 4.4% decrease to the company's top line. As a result, revenue from three years ago have also fallen 7.0% overall. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.
Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 7.5% as estimated by the four analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 14%, which is noticeably more attractive.
With this information, we can see why Outbrain is trading at a P/S lower than the industry. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
What Does Outbrain's P/S Mean For Investors?
The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift Outbrain's P/S close to the industry median. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
We've established that Outbrain maintains its low P/S on the weakness of its forecast growth being lower than the wider industry, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/S as they concede future revenue probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Outbrain you should know about.
It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.