调整盈利预期，维持“增持”评级。由于海外客户需求偏弱，叠加国内医美健康客户技术路线迭代，公司业绩表现略低于预期，考虑公司经营近况，我们下调公司盈利预期，预计公司2024-2026 年EPS为0.14/1.81/2.32 元（2024-2025 年原值为1.78/1.94 元），参考行业可比公司，给予公司2025 年17.5X PE，对应目标价33.50 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company has taken many measures to deal with the pressure of the external trade environment, and its business resilience has been highlighted.
Key investment points:
Adjust profit expectations and maintain an “gain” rating. Due to weak demand from overseas customers, compounded by the iteration of technology routes from domestic medical and aesthetic health customers, the company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering the company's recent operating conditions, we lowered the company's profit forecast. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 0.14/1.81/2.32 yuan (the original value in 2024-2025 was 1.78/1.94 yuan). Reference industry comparable companies gave the company 17.5X PE in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 33.50 yuan, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Actively seek out customers to hedge against pressure on the external trade environment. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.027 billion yuan, -18.23% year-on-year, and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company 0.002 billion yuan, or -98.82% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the company's revenue decline gradually narrowed. On the one hand, it was affected by changes in the base figure. On the other hand, the company actively expanded customers from other overseas channels, and shipments in Europe maintained high growth, fully hedging the impact of uncertainty in the trade environment. The decline in the company's profit was mainly due to a decrease in the size of orders, which led to an increase in the share of fixed depreciation and amortization expenses.
High quality customer resources and stable cooperation. Through years of development and marketing, the company has accumulated a large number of high-quality customer resources in the industry. The company's business covers developed countries and regions, mainly Europe and America, such as the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The company has established good cooperative relationships with large overseas flooring brands and building materials retailers such as KINGFISHER, BEAULIEU CANADA, ENGINEERED FLOORS, and HORNBACH. The company's main customers are large overseas enterprises, and there are high requirements when selecting suppliers. Suppliers must pass strict certification tests before they can be included in its qualified supplier catalogue. Under normal circumstances, customers will not easily replace qualified suppliers with whom they have cooperated for a long time.
Large-scale production has obvious advantages. On the one hand, the company is one of the major domestic PVC floor manufacturers. The production scale is large, and the unit cost of the product can be reduced; on the other hand, due to the improvement of the company's technical level, the company's production equipment tends to be automated and energy-saving. For example, the SPC floor material storage device, pipeline transportation and automatic measuring device used by the company can effectively improve the degree of automation of production, ensure the stability of product quality and save a lot of labor costs; the company uses hydraulic cooling and heating extension equipment, which can effectively reduce energy consumption and improve the service life of the machine.
Risk warning: Overseas demand falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, etc.
