1. TD Cowen analysts pointed out that if the Supreme Court maintains the ban, Trump will have to take "clever means" to protect TikTok; 2. TikTok has filed an emergency motion with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, requesting a stay of the ban's effectiveness while awaiting Supreme Court review.
On December 10, the Financial Association reported (editor Huang Junzhi) that although elected President Donald Trump vowed to protect TikTok from the impact of the U.S. ban, analysts warned that he might face a tricky path.
TD Cowen analyst Paul Gallant pointed out in a recently released report on Monday that in protecting TikTok from the U.S. ban, the incoming president may have to adopt some "clever means."
He noted, "If the Supreme Court maintains the ban, then it falls to Trump. If he insists on keeping his promise and resolving the TikTok issue, he will have to legally take some clever measures to achieve this goal."
"My guess is that Trump will try to orchestrate a trade that looks like a divestiture and announce that this is the end of the story, allowing TikTok to continue operating in the USA. In this case, Trump can be seen as the hero who saved TikTok," he wrote.
However, the analyst also acknowledged that divesting TikTok is easier said than done.
"Divesting TikTok from ByteDance is very difficult, and may even be impossible. The two companies are closely linked in terms of technology and personnel. In addition, there are political considerations—can Trump force the two companies to separate enough to avoid being criticized as weak?" he wrote.
However, Gallant also added that it is still impossible to predict what the Supreme Court will do.
TikTok "delays time".
As a backdrop, the usa federal appeals court previously ordered TikTok's parent company byte dance to divest from TikTok by January 19, or face a ban. Last Friday, three judges from the usa appeals court ruled to uphold this order.
However, TikTok submitted an emergency motion to the usa district of columbia circuit appeals court on Monday, requesting to stay the enforcement until the supreme court hears its appeal. According to documents submitted by the company to the court, TikTok has over 0.17 billion monthly active users in the usa.
According to this document, TikTok requests the appeals court to make a ruling on this request by December 16. It also emphasized that the usa supreme court is highly likely to take this case and overturn the ruling, thus there is reason to temporarily suspend the implementation of the bill to allow time for further review.
The company warned that without a court injunction, the TikTok ban will take effect and would lead to "TikTok being shut down on the eve of the usa presidential inauguration (January 20)."
Trump's stance.
In fact, Trump also attempted to ban TikTok during his first term, but he changed his stance during the campaign this year, claiming that he would no longer seek to ban TikTok and vowed to "save" TikTok. It is still unclear what measures Trump will take to "save" TikTok after he takes office.
Last weekend, he reiterated on a program, "I've used TikTok, so I can't really, you know, I can't totally hate it. It's very user-friendly. If TikTok is banned, something else will come along to take its place. Maybe that's not fair."
When asked if he would protect TikTok after taking office, he replied: "I will strive to do so in order to prevent other companies from becoming larger monopolies."
Earlier reports indicated that Trump might ask the Justice Department to refrain from enforcing the law. However, analysts pointed out that enforcement discretion or executive orders cannot override existing laws, which would limit Trump's ability to take unilateral action.
In addition, Trump could also choose to encourage Congress to repeal the bill, but this would require the support of congressional Republicans, who generally favor the divestment of TikTok.
John Molinar, a Republican and chairman of the House "China Task Force," stated on the 6th that he believes Trump will "facilitate the takeover of TikTok by the usa."
Robert Kaminski, an analyst at the research and forecasting firm Capital Alpha Partners, stated, "The two key factors determining the fate of this application are the Supreme Court and President Trump. Our expectation is that the Supreme Court will take the case and issue a stay order."