首次覆盖，给予“增持”评级，目标价 32元。我们预测 2024-2026年公司EPS 为1.2/1.72/2.13 元，增速为-36%/+43%/+24%。参考同行业可比公司，结合PE 估值及DCF 估值方法，考虑公司创新显示业务增速较快，公司进入AI 显示落地应用的多元发展期，给予25 年目标价32 元，对应25 年PE 18.6x。Introduction to this report:
Display the leading foundry, “AI+” display application launched, creating a second growth curve. Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given.
Key investment points:
For the first coverage, a “gain” rating was given, and the target price was 32 yuan. We forecast the company's EPS to be 1.2/1.72/2.13 yuan in 2024-2026, with a growth rate of -36%/+43%/+24%. Referring to comparable companies in the same industry, combined with PE valuation and DCF valuation methods, considering that the company's innovation shows that the business is growing faster. The company has entered a diversified development period of AI display implementation applications, and a target price of 32 yuan for 25 years is given, corresponding to PE 18.6x in 25 years.
A different point of view: The market believes that the global black power market has entered stock competition, has limited room for growth, and is affected by upstream panel costs, and the company's performance is not flexible. We believe that the company has differentiated competitive characteristics, and its innovation genes have been incorporated into the display segment. Based on excellent production and research and the ability to bind resources with major downstream customers, it is expected to break through in new business segments.
AI+ display application launched, creating a second growth curve. 1) From 2022 to 2024, the company stepped up efforts to develop innovative display business, and supported the development of its three own brands “KTC”, “Horion (Horion)”, and “FPD”, and successively launched new products such as mobile smart screens, smart beauty mirrors, VR glasses, live broadcasters, projectors, smart displays, OLED suspended televisions, etc.; through the power of AI technology, it has built a diversified product matrix around smart displays, covering multiple key scenarios such as “office”, “education”, “medical care”, and “entertainment” Side-landing application capability . 2024Q1-Q3, the share of innovation display business revenue increased to about 10%, and is expected to support the second growth curve of the company's display business. 2) The global market for flat screen TVs has entered stock competition. Overseas demand for smart TVs is polarized, and the demand space for emerging markets continues to grow. The company differentiates its positioning as a black power agency business in the Belt and Road market, serving LocalKing customers, and stable customer resources. Since 2023, major North American customers have been introduced, and the smart TV business has grown strongly. In the first half of 2024, the company's share ranked fourth among professional foundries. With flexible production and differentiation strategies, the company's smart TV business is expected to achieve further growth. 3) The company's intelligent interactive display (IFPD) industry covers intelligent interactive tablet business (education+conference) and professional display product business; downstream customers are leading education groups, and demand is steady. In the medium to long term, there is room for improvement in the global IFPD penetration rate for education and conferences. The company has steadily ranked first in IFPD shipments, and is expected to follow the industry for further growth in the future.
Catalysts: The company's “AI+” product applications exploded, and demand for overseas education informatization recovered.
Risk warning: The risk of fluctuating raw material prices, worsening industry competition, and increased export tariffs to the US.
