This article is compiled from GF Securities Co., LTD. 's "allocation strategy in the middle and later stage of epidemic digestion" and the market microstructure under the "epidemic value pit". Guoxin Hong Kong is "Hong Kong stocks are not afraid of black swans, and smart stock selection is the most important."
First, the epidemic control situation has improved, and the combination of superimposed policies has led to a rapid rebound in A shares.
The market has passed the "panic period" brought about by the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. With the improvement of the epidemic control situation and the government's continued supportive fiscal and monetary policies, the market has rebounded rapidly into a "digestive period".
Guangfa believes thatThe rapid rebound of A shares is driven by the downward discount rate (interest rate + equity risk premium).To put it simply, although performance has been hurt by the epidemic, subsequent looser policies have led to lower requirements for capital returns and greater flexibility in valuation. And this year,It is expected that the financial supply-side reform "reducing physical financing costs" will still be the main line of policy, which will make greater efforts to reduce the cost of bank liabilities, and the monetary policy as a whole will be more relaxed.
So, at the moment,Liquidity is still a key factor affecting A shares, and short-term marginal changes in short-term interest rates need to be closely followed.
II.The epidemic "highly sensitive" sector "suppresses first and then rises", and the current allocation income may be greater.
The overall response of the Hong Kong stock market is softer than that of A shares, and the impact of the epidemic is more reflected in the differentiation of industry performance, and there is also a different logic behind it:
The emerging growth industries with "low sensitivity" to the epidemic reflect the "clustered" effect:
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, health care, software services, semiconductors and other industries have continued to win. The fundamental reason is that the fundamentals of the industry are relatively less affected by the epidemic.
Changes in market volatility have made the performance of "low-sensitive" industries with high dividends very different:
Two weeks before the outbreak, risk aversion intensified and the volatility of Hong Kong stocks rose sharply. Affected by this, the more defensive public utilities and telecommunications services perform better. However, with the deepening of the market's understanding of the epidemic in the past two weeks and the improvement of panic, the volatility of Hong Kong stocks has declined, and public utilities and telecommunications services have begun to weaken.
The epidemic "highly sensitive" sector that benefits from the "countercyclical" policy "suppresses first and then rises":
In the rebound since February, the performance of Hong Kong cars and real estate stocks is second only to medicine and technology, and the logic behind it: on the one hand, because after the sharp fall in the previous market, the industry valuation fell to an all-time low, reflecting a strong margin of safety; but the more important reason is that the expectation of counter-cyclical hedging policy has strengthened, promoting the rapid repair of industry valuations.
Standing at the present time, Guangfa believes that the sudden COVID-19 epidemic has led to a "value pit" in the Hong Kong stock market, which has increased the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks in the medium and long term, and the core logic remains unchanged:
The global "asset shortage" for undervalued and high dividend asset allocation, especially the long-term allocation of domestic risk capital and financial subsidiaries
The "weak recovery" of profits of Chinese capital stocks in Hong Kong stocks is still a high probability event, and the epidemic only affects the rhythm.
The return of overseas funds brought about by "a weak dollar and a stable RMB".
The main line of allocation is still "low sensitive" to the epidemic, and oversold in the previous period, but highly benefited from the "low sensitivity" related to countercyclical hedging policies.The epidemic "low sensitivity" plate is used as the "shield" and the counter-cyclical plate is the "spear".
Editor's note: February 18, real estate in the counter-cyclical policy after days of continuous rise ushered in a pullback.
The main reason may be that the person in charge of the central bank said yesterday that "the market statement that the central bank intends to adjust the relevant assessment indicators of real estate credit in the macro-prudential assessment (MPA) is not true, and the people's Bank of China will continue to follow the requirements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council."Adhere to the position of "living in a house without speculation"In accordance with the basic principles of implementing policies according to the city, we should implement the long-term management and regulation mechanism of real estate, coordinate the financial regulation of real estate, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. "
Specific"low sensitivity" and"highly sensitive" industry, Guoxin Securities has done a detailed comb as follows.
Edit / richardli