快运行业来源多元，关注四大需求驱动。具体来看：1）“两新两重”政策加速落地，制造业PMI 回升；2）大件品牌商/经销商线上渗透率提升带来行业增量；3）高端制造业快速发展带来大件快递需求增长；4）供应链柔性化升级，渠道多元化、碎片化推动全网型快运行业高速增长。Key investment points:
Debon Co., Ltd. is a leading high-end express company in the country, and JD's investment in '22 brought about major changes. High-end express delivery and bulky express delivery are the company's main business, which is greatly affected by the macroeconomic climate. After completing the acquisition of Debon shares in '22, JD became the largest shareholder of the company. JD's investment brought full support to the JD ecosystem for Debon shares, which not only helped to reuse network resources and enhance synergy between the two sides, but also injected fresh blood into Debon shares and promoted the renewal of Debon's management.
The express industry is clearly stratified, and the high-end express delivery pattern is stabilizing. Referring to changes in the US LTL market industry, China's LTL industry is currently in a period of integration. The industry is scattered, and there is room for improvement in concentration. The overall pricing of the middle and high-end bulky express delivery market has a higher premium compared to the middle and low end. The market hierarchy is similar to small express delivery: in the middle and high-end bulky goods market, the direct management system has stronger control and clearly dominates; in the middle and low end markets, the franchise system is more cost efficient and has an advantage. At present, high-end express shipping has formed an oligarchy competition pattern of “SF Express + JD”. Looking at the long term, the price competition for high-end express delivery is expected to slow down.
The express shipping industry comes from many sources and focuses on four major demand drivers. Specifically: 1) The implementation of the “two new and double” policies accelerated, and the manufacturing PMI rebounded; 2) the increase in the online penetration rate of large brands and dealers brought about industry growth; 3) the rapid development of the high-end manufacturing industry led to an increase in demand for large express delivery; 4) The flexible upgrading of the supply chain, and diversification and fragmentation of channels drove the rapid growth of the entire network express industry.
Quality and network build core barriers, and the integration of JD logistics can be expected in the future. The company's core competitive barriers stand out, and service quality and network coverage are the main competitive factors. Facing the industry's service quality pain points, Debon has built high service quality barriers through four aspects: 1) excellent talent reserves; 2) refined management processes and scientific operation systems; 3) a strong incentive system for employees at all levels; 4) continuous R&D investment and digital management construction. The mutual integration of JD Logistics and Debon is conducive to complementing resources. For Debon, it is expected to enhance the company's logistics and transportation capabilities, expand its customer base, and enhance economies of scale.
Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given. The company's 2024E-2026E is expected to achieve net profit of 0.842, 1.016, and 1.209 billion yuan, with year-on-year increases of 13.0%, 20.6%, and 19.0%, corresponding PE of 18x, 15x, and 12x, respectively. The main business of Debon Co., Ltd. is high-end direct express delivery. Its main products include LTL and express delivery services. The main business of SF Express Holdings is also express delivery and express delivery business. Among them, the express delivery business is mainly high-end direct express delivery, which is comparable to Debon shares. Therefore, we chose SF Holdings as a comparable company of Debon shares. The 2024E-2026E comparable company's PE valuation is 20x, 18x, and 16x. Based on comparable company valuation levels, we believe that the company's reasonable PE valuation ratio in 2024 is 20x, and there is still room for 16% corresponding to the current market value. Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given.
Risk warning: Macro demand falls short of expectations; price competition in the express industry exceeds expectations; network integration progress falls short of expectations.
