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We're Not Very Worried About QuantumScape's (NYSE:QS) Cash Burn Rate

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 10 00:27

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although software-as-a-service business Salesforce.com lost money for years while it grew recurring revenue, if you held shares since 2005, you'd have done very well indeed. Nonetheless, only a fool would ignore the risk that a loss making company burns through its cash too quickly.

So should QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? For the purposes of this article, cash burn is the annual rate at which an unprofitable company spends cash to fund its growth; its negative free cash flow. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

When Might QuantumScape Run Out Of Money?

A cash runway is defined as the length of time it would take a company to run out of money if it kept spending at its current rate of cash burn. When QuantumScape last reported its September 2024 balance sheet in October 2024, it had zero debt and cash worth US$841m. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$338m. So it had a cash runway of about 2.5 years from September 2024. That's decent, giving the company a couple years to develop its business. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

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NYSE:QS Debt to Equity History December 9th 2024

How Is QuantumScape's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

QuantumScape didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. With cash burn dropping by 4.5% it seems management feel the company is spending enough to advance its business plans at an appropriate pace. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

Can QuantumScape Raise More Cash Easily?

Even though it has reduced its cash burn recently, shareholders should still consider how easy it would be for QuantumScape to raise more cash in the future. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

QuantumScape's cash burn of US$338m is about 13% of its US$2.6b market capitalisation. As a result, we'd venture that the company could raise more cash for growth without much trouble, albeit at the cost of some dilution.

So, Should We Worry About QuantumScape's Cash Burn?

The good news is that in our view QuantumScape's cash burn situation gives shareholders real reason for optimism. Not only was its cash burn relative to its market cap quite good, but its cash runway was a real positive. Based on the factors mentioned in this article, we think its cash burn situation warrants some attention from shareholders, but we don't think they should be worried. Taking a deeper dive, we've spotted 3 warning signs for QuantumScape you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies with significant insider holdings, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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