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U.S. Stock Market Preview | The monetary policy again emphasizes "moderate easing"! China assets welcome a festive night; Wall Street's optimistic expectations increase, and the s&p 500 may reach 7,100 points next year.

Futu News · Dec 9, 2024 21:39

热点要闻

周一，美股盘前三大股指期货涨跌不一

AI概念股股盘前涨普涨，超微电脑涨超9%，Palantir涨超7%，特斯拉涨超2%

热门中概股盘前普涨，贝壳、哔哩哔哩涨超11%，京东、网易涨超8%

十年未有之“适度宽松”！做多中国指数盘前大涨

$3倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion (YINN.US)$盘前大涨超18%，$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares (KWEB.US)$涨超7%，$中国大盘股ETF-iShares (FXI.US)$涨超6%。

中共中央政治局12月9日召开会议，分析研究2025年经济工作，提出实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加强超常规逆周期调节。回顾过去30年中国货币政策的实践，中国央行只在2009-2010期间曾实施“适度宽松”的货币政策。

房多多盘前飙涨38%，贝壳涨超11%，中共中央政治局会议强调稳住楼市股市

截至发稿，$房多多 (DUO.US)$美股盘前飙涨超38%，$贝壳 (BEKE.US)$涨超11%。消息上，中共中央政治局会议强调，做好明年经济工作，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，扩大国内需求，推动科技创新和产业创新融合发展，稳住楼市股市，防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击，稳定预期、激发活力，推动经济持续回升向好。

英伟达涉嫌违反反垄断法，市场监管总局依法决定立案调查，盘前跌超1%

近日，因$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$公司涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》及《市场监管总局关于附加限制性条件批准英伟达公司收购迈络思科技有限公司股权案反垄断审查决定的公告》，市场监管总局依法对英伟达公司开展立案调查。

截至发稿，英伟达盘前跌超1%。

阿联酋“AI雄心”获强力支持！美国批准微软提供AI芯片

媒体平台Axios近日援引两名知情人士的话报道称，美国政府已批准向 $微软 (MSFT.US)$ 在阿拉伯联合酋长国运营的一处云计算基础设施出口最先进的人工智能芯片，这是这家美国科技巨头与阿联酋国内的人工智能公司G42受到严格审查的合作伙伴关系的重要部分，双方云计算合作经过美国政府严格审查后终于落地。

特斯拉盘前涨超2%，股价逼近历史最高价，明年销量增长目标为20-30%

$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$盘前涨超2%，开盘将再刷新阶段新高且逼近历史最高价。消息上，特斯拉再次强调，2025年的销量增长目标为20-30%，这一增长基于最大化现有产能利用率的能力。此外，FSD过去一年的显著改进归因于训练计算能力的增加，从20000个GPU增加到大约90000个GPU，仅用了10个月的时间。

超微电脑盘前涨超8%，延期提交财报请求获纳斯达克批准

$超微电脑 (SMCI.US)$盘前涨超8%。消息面上，超微电脑上周宣布，纳斯达克已批准该公司延期提交财务报告的请求，允许该公司在2025年2月25日之前提交截至2024年6月30日的10-K年报和截至2024年9月30日的10-Q季报。在例外期内，公司普通股将继续在纳斯达克全球精选市场上市。公司目前预计在2025年2月25日前提交所有必要的报告。

Palantir盘前涨超6%，与美国特种作战司令部扩大人工智能合同协作

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$盘前涨超6%，美国特种作战司令部扩大与Palantir的合同以提供先进的人工智能和任务管理器功能。

阿波罗全球管理和Workday獲納入標普500指數，盘前分别涨超5%和8%

人力资源与财务软件公司$Workday (WDAY.US)$和投资管理公司$阿波罗全球管理 (APO.US)$将加入标准普尔500指数成分股，取代$Qorvo (QRVO.US)$和$Amentum Holdings (AMTM.US)$，并将于12月23日生效。

SpaceX概念股 $Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ.US)$盘前续涨超9%

埃培智盘前涨超13%，传宏盟集团收购埃培智进行深入谈判，有望缔造全球最大广告公司

$埃培智 (IPG.US)$盘前涨超13%，消息面上，传$宏盟集团 (OMC.US)$正在就收购埃培智进行深入谈判，这笔交易将缔造全球最大的广告公司。报道称，这笔全股票交易可能最快在本周宣布。这笔交易将使两家知名的广告代理公司和广告采购公司合并，突显出广告业多年来的整合趋势。据报道，该交易对埃培智的估值可能在130-140亿美元之间，不包括债务。

携程网盘前涨超8%，获高盛上调目标价

$携程网 (TCOM.US)$盘前涨超8%。消息面上，高盛集团分析师Simon Cheung维持携程网“买入”评级，并将目标价从75美元上调至83美元。高盛指出，疫后复常两年，中国旅游需求已大致恢复正常，预期内地明年出境游和入境游将同步增长，除对线上旅游平台(OTA)有利外，亦将推动酒店和航空业发展。

全球宏观

中共中央政治局：明年要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加强超常规逆周期调节

中共中央政治局12月9日召开会议。会议指出，明年要坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，守正创新、先立后破，系统集成、协同配合，实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充实完善政策工具箱，加强超常规逆周期调节，打好政策“组合拳”，提高宏观调控的前瞻性、针对性、有效性。

同时，会议还指出，明年要要大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求。要以科技创新引领新质生产力发展，建设现代化产业体系。要发挥经济体制改革牵引作用，推动标志性改革举措落地见效。

华尔街美股看涨研报愈发激进！Oppenheimer给出“最狂展望”：明年标普500触及7100点

华尔街知名投资管理机构Oppenheimer Asset Management表示，在美国经济强劲增长的情况下，标普500指数将在明年年底前创纪录地上涨至7100点，该机构对于2025年美股基准指数——标普500指数的预测展望目前是华尔街同行中“最狂野的目标点位”，超出此前德意志银行与Yardeni Research给出的7000点，以及富国银行市场策略团队给出7007点这一标普500指数点位。

美股明年至少涨5%？华尔街大行年终预测来了：全员看涨

华尔街大行分析师们基本已经公布了年度预测，他们的平均预测是标普500指数将上涨10%左右，这与历史平均水平相符。在美股经历了两年高于历史平均水平的涨幅之后，大多数策略师目前的普遍预期与历史平均水平相符。分析师对标普500指数的预测从6400到7007点。这意味着较上周五收盘水平6090点的涨幅在5%到15%之间。

美联储下周降息只差“临门一脚”？债券交易员紧盯CPI和PPI数据

美债上周五延续了近期的反弹，此前月度就业报告显示就业市场正在降温，足以让美联储在12月18日会议结束时再次降息。而本周将公布的CPI和PPI数据预计显示通胀压力将略有上升。Winshore Capital表示：“除非CPI意外大幅上涨，否则美联储的基准是本月降息，因为他们觉得自己的政策仍是限制性的。因此我认为美国国债收益率已经见顶。”

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

23:00 美国10月批发销售月率

次日凌晨

00:00 美国11月纽约联储1年通胀预期

编辑/ping

Hot news

On Monday, the three major equity indices in the USA showed mixed results in pre-market trading.

AI concept stocks saw a widespread increase in pre-market trading, with super micro computer rising over 9%, palantir rising over 7%, and Tesla rising over 2%.

China concept stocks surged in pre-market trading, with ke holdings and bilibili rising over 11%, and jd.com and netease rising over 8%.

An unprecedented 'moderate easing'! Bullish on the China index with a significant increase in pre-market trading.

$Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares ETF (YINN.US)$Pre-market trading rose over 18%.$KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB.US)$Up more than 7%,$iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI.US)$up over 6%.

On December 9, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work for 2025, proposing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, and to strengthen extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments. Reviewing the past 30 years of China's monetary policy practice, the Chinese central bank only implemented a "moderately loose" monetary policy during the period of 2009-2010.

Fangdd Network soared over 38% in pre-market trading, ke holdings rose over 11%, as the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized stabilizing the real estate and stock markets.

As of press time,$Fangdd Network (DUO.US)$US pre-market trading soared over 38%.$KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$Rising over 11%. According to reports, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized the need to do a good job in next year's economic work, implement a more proactive macro policy, expand domestic demand, promote the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation development, stabilize the real estate market and stock market, prevent and resolve risks in key areas and external shocks, stabilize expectations, stimulate vitality, and promote the sustained recovery and improvement of the economy.

Nvidia is suspected of violating antitrust laws, and the State Administration for Market Regulation has decided to file a case for investigation according to the law, with a pre-market trading drop of over 1%.

Recently, due to$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The company is suspected of violating the Anti-Monopoly Law of the People's Republic of China and the announcement by the State Administration for Market Regulation regarding the antitrust review decision on the approval of nvidia's acquisition of Micron Technology, Inc. The State Administration for Market Regulation has legally initiated an investigation into nvidia.

As of the time of publication, nvidia's stock has fallen over 1% in pre-market trading.

The UAE's 'AI ambition' has received strong support! The USA approves microsoft to provide ai chips.

The media platform Axios recently cited two sources as saying that the USA government has approved to send $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ a cloud computing infrastructure operating in the United Arab Emirates, which is a crucial part of the partnership between this US technology giant and the UAE-based ai company G42, under rigorous scrutiny. The cloud computing collaboration between the two parties has finally been realized after strict review by the US government.

Tesla's stock has risen over 2% in pre-market trading, nearing its all-time high, with a sales growth target of 20-30% for next year.

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Rising over 2% in pre-market trading, it will set a new stage high and approach the all-time high at the opening. On the news, Tesla once again emphasized that its sales growth target for 2025 is 20-30%, based on maximizing the current capacity utilization. Additionally, the significant improvement in FSD over the past year is attributed to the increase in training computing power, rising from 20,000 GPUs to around 90,000 GPUs in just 10 months.

Super micro computer's stocks rose over 8% in pre-market trading, as the request for an extension to submit its financial report was approved by nasdaq.

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$In pre-market trading, stocks rose over 8%. In terms of news, super micro computer announced last week that nasdaq had approved the company's request for an extension to submit its financial reports, allowing the company to submit its 10-K annual report for the period ending June 30, 2024, and its 10-Q quarterly report for the period ending September 30, 2024, before February 25, 2025. During the exception period, the company's common stock will continue to be listed on the nasdaq global select market. The company currently expects to submit all necessary reports before February 25, 2025.

Palantir's pre-market trading rose over 6%, collaborating with the usa Special Operations Command to expand the ai contract.

$Palantir (PLTR.US)$In pre-market trading, it rose over 6% as the usa Special Operations Command expanded its contract with Palantir to provide advanced ai and task management features.

Apollo global management and Workday have been included in the s&p 500 index, with stocks rising over 5% and 8% in pre-market trading, respectively.

Human resources and financial software company.$Workday (WDAY.US)$And investment management company.$Apollo Global Management (APO.US)$Will join the s&p 500 index components, replacing$Qorvo (QRVO.US)$And.$Amentum Holdings (AMTM.US)$, and will take effect on December 23.

SpaceX concept stocks $Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ.US)$The pre-market trading rose over 9%.

The interpublic group of companies rose over 13% in pre-market trading, reportedly due to the omnicom group being in deep negotiations to acquire the interpublic group of companies, which could create the largest advertising company in the world.

$The Interpublic Group of Companies (IPG.US)$The pre-market trading rose over 13%, based on reports.$Omnicom Group (OMC.US)$Deep negotiations are ongoing to acquire the interpublic group of companies, and this deal would create the largest advertising company in the world. Reports suggest that this all-stock transaction may be announced as early as this week. This deal would merge two well-known advertising agencies and media buying companies, highlighting the trend of consolidation in the advertising industry over the years. It is reported that this deal values the interpublic group of companies at around 13-14 billion USD, excluding debt.

Trip.com pre-market trading rose over 8%, with Goldman Sachs raising the target price.

$Trip.com (TCOM.US)$Pre-market trading rose over 8%. According to news, analyst Simon Cheung from goldman sachs maintained a 'buy' rating for trip.com and raised the target price from $75 to $83. goldman sachs pointed out that after two years of post-pandemic recovery, China's travel demand has largely returned to normal, expecting that outbound and inbound tourism in mainland China will grow simultaneously next year, which will benefit online travel platforms (OTA) and also drive the development of the hotel and aviation industries.

Global macro

The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China: Next year, more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose mmf policy will be implemented, strengthening extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments.

On December 9, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting. The meeting pointed out that next year, it is necessary to maintain stability while seeking progress, promote stability through progress, adhere to innovation while being rigorous, focus on systematic integration and coordination, implement more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose mmf policy, enrich and improve the policy toolbox, strengthen extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments, implement a policy 'combination punch', and enhance the foresight, targeting, and effectiveness of macro-control.

At the same time, the meeting also pointed out that next year, it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and comprehensively expand domestic demand. Science and technology innovation should lead the development of new productive forces and establish a modern industrial system. The role of economic system reform should be leveraged to promote the implementation and effectiveness of landmark reform measures.

Wall Street's bullish research reports on the US stocks are becoming increasingly aggressive! Oppenheimer has issued the 'most outrageous outlook': the s&p 500 will reach 7100 points next year.

The renowned Wall Street investment management institution Oppenheimer Asset Management stated that with the strong growth of the US economy, the s&p 500 index is expected to rise to a record 7100 points by the end of next year. This forecast for the 2025 benchmark s&p 500 index is currently the 'wildest target' among Wall Street peers, exceeding the 7000 points given by deutsche bank and yardeni research, as well as the 7007 points predicted by wells fargo & co's market strategy team.

Will US stocks at least rise by 5% next year? Wall Street's major firms have released their year-end predictions: everyone is bullish.

The analysts from major Wall Street firms have basically announced their annual predictions, with their average forecast being that the s&p 500 index will rise by about 10%, which aligns with historical averages. After the US stocks experienced two years of growth above historical averages, the general expectation among most strategists currently aligns with historical averages. Analysts' predictions for the s&p 500 index range from 6400 to 7007 points. This means an increase of 5% to 15% from last Friday's closing level of 6090 points.

Is the Federal Reserve just one step away from lowering interest rates next week? Bond traders are closely watching the CPI and PPI data.

US bonds continued their recent rebound last Friday, after the monthly employment report indicated that the job market is cooling enough for the Fed to lower rates again at the end of the meeting on December 18. The CPI and PPI data to be released this week are expected to show a slight rise in inflationary pressure. Winshore Capital stated: 'Unless CPI unexpectedly rises sharply, the Fed's benchmark is to cut rates this month, as they feel their policy is still restrictive. Therefore, I believe US Treasury yields have peaked.'

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

23:00 USA October wholesale sales month-on-month rate.

The next morning

00:00 USA November New York Fed 1-year inflation expectation.

Editor/ping

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