This month, we saw the Wayfair Inc. (NYSE:W) up an impressive 38%. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last three years have been stomach churning. To wit, the share price sky-dived 74% in that time. So it sure is nice to see a bit of an improvement. But the more important question is whether the underlying business can justify a higher price still.
While the last three years has been tough for Wayfair shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
Given that Wayfair didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.
Over the last three years, Wayfair's revenue dropped 5.4% per year. That is not a good result. Having said that the 20% annualized share price decline highlights the risk of investing in unprofitable companies. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. There's no more than a snowball's chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.
The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Wayfair will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 34% in the last year, Wayfair shareholders lost 2.5%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 7% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Wayfair better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Wayfair you should be aware of, and 1 of them shouldn't be ignored.
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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
