Jinwu Financial News | Haitong sec released research reports stating that Miniso (09896) will announce its Q3 financial report on November 29. Revenue is 4.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19%; adjusted net profit is 0.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%; adjusted net margin is 15.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 percentage points. The company maintains its guidance for 2024, projecting revenue growth of 20%-30% year-on-year and adjusted net profit of 2.8 billion yuan.

The bank stated that domestic business revenue is 2.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%; among which, Miniso brand revenue is 2.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. ① O2O boosts same-store sales. From January to September, largely affected by order volumes, same-store sales declined year-on-year by mid-single digits; O2O business grew nearly 80% year-on-year, providing some support to same-store sales. ② The number of stores grew steadily. By the end of September, there were a total of 4,250 Miniso stores in the domestic market, with a net increase of 135 stores quarter-on-quarter, including a net increase of 22/66/47 stores in first/second/third tier cities and below respectively. ③ Building an innovative store matrix. At the brand upgrade launch in October, the seven-layer store matrix strategy was introduced from the perspectives of IP scenario and category scenario to further tap into the potential of consumer interest. ④ TOPTOY has been profitable for four consecutive quarters, with overseas expansion initiated. Revenue is 0.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50%; the number of stores reached 234, with a net increase of 39 stores quarter-on-quarter. Additionally, after the TOPTOY brand product debuted in Indonesia's Jakarta flagship store in August in a shop-in-shop format, the first overseas store opened in Bangkok, Thailand in October, making Southeast Asia a major market for the future.

The bank expects the company's total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 17.2/21.6/25.6 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 24%/25%/18%; adjusted net profit of 2.8/3.53/4.23 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 19%/26%/20%; corresponding EPS of 2.24/2.82/3.38 yuan. Based on a PE ratio of 20-25 times for 2024, the reasonable value range is 48.1-60.2 Hong Kong dollars per share (using 1 HKD = 0.93 CNY for calculation); maintaining an "outperform the market" rating.