Jing Wu Financial News | First Shanghai issued a research report indicating that miniso (09896) achieved revenues of 12.281/4.523 billion yuan in Q1-Q3/Q3 of 2024, representing year-on-year growth of +22.8%/+19.3%, with adjusted net income of 1.928/0.686 billion yuan, year-on-year growth of +13.7%/+6.9%, and adjusted net margin of 15.7%/15.2%, a decrease of -1.3/-1.7 percentage points year-on-year.

The report noted that overseas miniso achieved revenues of 4.54/1.81 billion yuan in Q1-3/Q3, a year-on-year increase of +41.5%/+39.8%. Among them, the direct sales/agent market revenue in Q1-3 reached 2.448/2.095 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +54%/+46%. As of September 2024, the number of overseas miniso stores reached 2,936, with a net increase of 183 stores in Q3. The overseas same-store sales in Q1-3 achieved high single-digit growth; by region, Latin America/North America/Asia/Europe saw same-store sales growth of 10-20% in the lower range/single digits in the mid range/high single digits/low single digits, with a net increase of 14/60/88/16 stores respectively in Q3. With the overseas peak season approaching in Q4, combined with the catalyst of the Harry Potter IP, overseas sales performance is expected to further release.

The report continued to point out that the company, as a global leader in self-owned brand comprehensive retail, has vast expansion opportunities both domestically and internationally. Looking ahead, with an increase in overseas sales proportion, brand upgrades, and the deepening implementation of the super IP global strategy, the company's profitability is expected to continue improving. The report forecasts adjusted net income for 2024-2026 to be 2.81/3.57/4.34 billion yuan, thus setting a target price of 58.29 Hong Kong dollars, which corresponds to a 20 times PE based on fiscal year 2025 profit forecast, indicating a potential increase of 23.9% from the current stock price, maintaining a buy rating.