调整盈利预期，维持“增持”评级。由于海外客户需求偏弱，叠加国内医美健康客户技术路线迭代，公司业绩表现略低于预期，考虑公司经营近况，我们下调公司盈利预期，预计公司2024-2026 年EPS为1.01/1.26/1.41 元（2024-2025 年原值为1.27/1.48 元），参考行业可比公司，给予公司2025 年19.6X PE，对应目标价24.71 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
Revenue performance was steady, profit performance was excellent after excluding share payments, and overseas production capacity construction progressed steadily.
Key investment points:
Adjust profit expectations and maintain an “gain” rating. Due to weak demand from overseas customers, compounded by the iteration of technology routes from domestic medical and aesthetic health customers, the company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering the company's recent operating conditions, we lowered the company's profit forecast. The company's 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 1.01/1.26/1.41 yuan (the original value in 2024-2025 was 1.27/1.48 yuan). Reference industry comparable companies gave the company 19.6X PE in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 24.71 yuan, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Revenue remained steady, and profit margins improved. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.192 billion yuan, -0.09% year-on-year, and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 0.321 billion yuan, +5.39% year-on-year. On a quarterly basis, the company's gross margin remained stable. Profit fluctuations mainly came from the cost side and exchange benefits. In 2024, due to increased share payment fees, which suppressed profit performance, actual profit performance was superior to performance. The company achieved impressive profit growth in the first two quarters under the influence of a low base, and profit declined in the third quarter due to exchange exchange.
Multiple categories go hand in hand. 1) Kitchen and bathroom category: Deeply cultivate customer share, shower and kitchen faucet categories still have a low share. In line with new customer procurement trends, cut into the entire set of products, and there is plenty of room for innovation.
2) Smart toilet: The wholly-owned holding Beijet later transitioned to IDM, emphasizing technological innovation/R&D investment to achieve cooperation and collaboration with Kohler and Moen. 3) Beauty and health: Exploring the European and American markets in 24 years, beauty showers and beauty devices are the main growth points. It also lays out oral/hair/skin care, and follows the path of higher added value. In 2023, key strategies were sorted out, and business divisions were redivided according to scenarios, while separating the product layer and manufacturing layer, emphasizing modularity and specialization, and accelerating the transformation of IDM hardware platform economy enterprises.
Actively promote the construction of overseas production capacity and enhance the stability of the supply chain. The company's core products are currently in the kitchen and bathroom category. The overseas market is dominated by international brands in Europe. The US region accounts for 20% + of total revenue. It is mainly shipped from domestic factories, and the overall risk exposure is limited. Furthermore, the company is actively promoting the construction of overseas production capacity to cope with the uncertainty of the form of international trade. The company's Vietnam base is planned to be built in stages. The first phase of the plant is expected to be put into operation in 2025, which is expected to cover most orders to the US. The diversified supply chain layout is expected to gradually improve the stability of the company's supply chain.
Risk warning: Overseas demand falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies, etc.
