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後場に注目すべき3つのポイント一時マイナス圏に転落で上値の重い展開続く

Three key points to watch in the latter half: a drop into negative territory has led to a continuation of a heavy upward trend.

Fisco Japan ·  Dec 9 11:37

In the afternoon of the 9th, the following three points deserve attention in trading:

The Nikkei average rebounded, but remained under pressure as it temporarily fell into negative territory.

The dollar-yen exchange rate showed signs of stabilizing, watching U.S. interest rates and Japanese stocks.

The top contributor to the gain was Fast Retailing <9983>, while SoftBank Group <9984> ranked second.

The Nikkei average rebounded, but remained under pressure as it temporarily fell into negative territory.

The Nikkei average rebounded, ending the morning session at 39,197.57 yen, up 106.40 yen (estimated volume 0.8 billion or 97.37 million shares).

Last Friday, the U.S. market's Dow average fell by $123.19 to $44,642.52, while the Nasdaq increased by 159.05 points to close at 19,859.77. Following the employment statistics, expectations for additional interest rate cuts at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased, leading to a rise after the opening. However, as several Federal Reserve Board (FRB) officials expressed caution about rate cuts, speculation about a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts intensified, causing the market to struggle. Although the Dow remained weak throughout the day, the Nasdaq was supported by early rate cut expectations and trended firmly throughout the day, updating its past record high for consecutive days.

With an eye on the U.S. stock market, today's Nikkei started rebounding at 39,332.55 yen, up 241.38 yen compared to last Friday. Buying initially led, aligning with Chicago futures, but once the buying was done, selling pressure due to profit-taking and waiting for a rebound pushed it briefly into negative territory. However, it later rebounded back into positive territory due to buybacks. As semiconductor-related stocks had attracted attention last Friday, there was likely selling pressure today due to concerns about short-term overheating in the semiconductor segment.

Individually, softbank group co <9984>, IHI <7013>, fast retail <9983>, recruit HD <6098>, and sony group corp <6758> rose. Additionally, rakuten <4755>, seen as a positive factor for shareholder benefits, surged, with elan <6099>, ceres <3696>, and maruichi steel <5463> among the top risers.

On the other hand, some semiconductor-related stocks such as disco <6146> and tohoku electric <8035>, as well as defense-related stocks like mitsubishi heavy industries <7011> and kawasaki heavy industries <7012> were sluggish. Also, mitsubishi UFJ <8306>, hitachi <6501>, kansai electric power <9503>, and mitsubishi corporation <8058> fell. AIN HD <9627>, whose first-half operating profit fell short of plans, and japan parking development <2353>, which had a solid first-quarter result but felt a sense of saturation, dropped sharply. Additionally, japan microdevices <6871>, eternal G <3193>, and symphonia technology <6507> were among the top decliners.

By global sectors, the service sector, air transportation, and information and communications industries rose, while mining, oil and coal products, and the insurance industry declined.

In the afternoon session, the nikkei average stock price seems likely to continue in a heavy upward trend due to a lack of strong buying materials. The prospects of an interest rate hike during the bank of japan's monetary policy meeting on the 18th-19th have decreased since the comments made by bank of japan governor kazuo ueda at the end of November, but there's still plenty of room for rekindling based on economic data such as the third quarter real GDP (secondary estimate) to be announced this week. Also, with the FOMC meeting being held before the bank of japan meeting on the 17th-18th, interest in U.S. economic indicators like the consumer price index in November is expected to rise. This week, fluctuations in the dollar-yen exchange rate are anticipated due to speculation on the U.S. and Japanese central bank meetings, potentially causing export-related stocks such as automobiles and those benefiting from a strong yen to appear at the top of the rise and fall rankings.

■ The dollar-yen exchange rate is stabilizing, watching U.S. interest rates and Japanese stocks.

In the Tokyo market on the morning of the 9th, the dollar-yen exchange rate showed signs of stabilizing, dropping from 150.06 yen to 149.69 yen before returning close to 150 yen. The U.S. 10-year bond yield remained firm, making it hard to sell the dollar. Conversely, the nikkei average stock price briefly turned lower but then rose, weakening the yen buying.

So far, the trading range has been as follows: dollar-yen from 149.69 yen to 150.06 yen, euro-yen from 158.02 yen to 158.55 yen, euro-dollar from 1.0550 dollars to 1.0569 dollars.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

Three stocks, including GreenBee <3913> and G.C. Planning <4073>, hit the daily limit high.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

The top contributor to the gain was Fast Retailing <9983>, while SoftBank Group <9984> ranked second.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

Japan's 7-9 quarter GDP second preliminary: +1.2% (previous period annual estimate: +1.0%, first preliminary: +0.9%).

Japan's October current account balance: +2 trillion 456.9 billion yen (estimate: +2 trillion 312.2 billion yen, September: +1 trillion 717.1 billion yen).

China's November consumer price index: +0.2% year-on-year (estimate: +0.5%, October: +0.3%).

・November producer price index: -2.5% year-on-year (expected: -2.9%, October: -2.9%)

[Important Person's Remarks]

・Bowman, FRB Governor

"Supports careful, gradual interest rate cuts."

"The unemployment rate remains at a record low level."

"The rise in the unemployment rate this year reflects a slowdown in the pace of employment."

・14:00 November economic watcher survey - current assessment (expected: 47.3, September: 47.5)

Nothing special

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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