In 2025, the demand growth rate and production capacity growth rate are essentially matched, and the leading companies in the industry will continue to see structural opportunities.
According to SinoLink's research reports, from the perspective of cycle and pattern, the new energy autos sector is in an upward phase of a "triple bottom." Based on the CNI Investment Clock Index, during the sector's bottoming phase, it will welcome a structural opportunity for leading companies, bullish on various leading companies in the entire recovery market. With industry capacity utilization continuously increasing from May 2025, the bank is optimistic about the cyclical opportunities in sectors with relatively tight capacity such as high-voltage solid iron lithium, 6F, and other sectors; from a growth perspective, optimistic about the mass application of 0-1 large-scale complex series current collectors starting in 2025.
Sinolink Securities' main points are as follows:
In 2025, demand is expected to maintain high growth: the bank predicts a +22% year-on-year increase in global lithium battery demand in 2025.
Among them, power and energy storage remain the core drivers of demand growth, with projected power demand of 1051/1258 GWh in 2024 and 2025, with a growth rate of 22%/20%. Domestic electrification maintains high growth; energy storage demand is estimated at 266/372 GWh, with a growth rate of 35%/40%, and the United States' large storage enters a period of ultra-high growth; combined demand for consumer, power tools, etc., is estimated at 121/129 GWh, with a growth rate of 7%/7%, healthy inventory, and stable demand growth.
Cycle: The cni investment clock is turning towards the bottom of production capacity utilization, launching a comprehensive market for leading companies in segmented sectors and some sectors with tight capacity.
As a cyclical growth sector, batteries' demand growth rate, production capacity, and inventory cycle are the core influencing factors of the industry chain fundamentals. In 2025, the demand growth rate and production capacity growth rate are essentially matched, and the leading companies in the industry will continue to see structural opportunities. In some areas, such as high-voltage solid iron lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, where demand growth outpaces supply growth, starting in May 2025, as the industry's capacity utilization marginally increases, sectors with significant improvements in supply-demand balance such as high-voltage solid iron lithium may experience substantial changes in quantity and price elasticity.
Framework: Sub-sector leaders are still the best configuration strategy.
From the perspective of cost and product differentiation, in the tracks of cell, structural components, negative electrodes, lithium iron, ternary precursor materials, separators, etc., the leading companies have significant product and cost competitive advantages. The industry will maintain the trend of the top companies filling their production capacity first as the industry's highest quality capacity utilization rate, with the most certain performance realization and the strongest flexibility.
Growth:
(1) In 2025, composite current collectors will kick off the first round of battery material technology iteration. Composite copper foil is expected to achieve large-scale application from 2025 onwards. Composite aluminum foil (MA) has already been shipped in small batches in 2024 in the 3C digital and automotive fields. The industry addressed product quality issues such as pp film shedding and surface resistance for composite copper foil (MC) in 2023, and in 2024, rapid iterations were made around magnetron sputtering and water plating equipment efficiency and cost reduction. Currently, the industry is addressing the yield rate and cost issues of composite current collector cell production lines and is expected to gradually reach mass application conditions. In the long term, composite current collectors mark the beginning of a major iteration cycle in battery material technology. The investment elasticity of the industry chain follows the sequence of manufacturing, equipment, and base film;
(2) Acceleration of the industrialization of solid-state technologies. With a substantial increase in industry research and development investment, the industrialization of solid-state batteries will accelerate. From a technology iteration roadmap perspective, the negative electrodes will be the first to initiate technical innovations: composite current collectors + silicon-carbon, followed by casings, electrolytes, etc. The prospects for the industrialization of solid-state batteries are certain, but the progression towards solid-state technology routes is gradual, and material technological innovations will unfold in accordance with technological and industry logic.
Investment advice
(1) Recommendations: contemporary amperex technology (300750.SZ), Shenzhen Kedali Industry (002850.SZ), Eve Energy Co.,Ltd. (300014.SZ) etc.
(2) In terms of elasticity ranking, it is in the order of manufacturing, equipment, and base film.
Risk Warning: The demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage market is below expectations, industry chain production and utilization rate improvement below expectations, risks of European and American policy sanctions, and risks of slower than expected progress in new technologies.
