盈利预测：我们预计营收24-26 年1815.6/2308.4/2770.0 亿元，同比增速依次为20%、27%、20%，我们预计归母净利润24-26 年分别为55.5/102.0/122.9 亿元，同比增速依次为-51%、84%、21%，维持“买入”评级。Incident: The company released the November production and sales report and fixed increase announcement. In November, sales volume was 27.7w units, with a year-on-year increase of +21.98%, including 10.2w new energy vehicles; the cumulative sales volume in January-November was 243.3w units, +4.07% year-on-year, including 151.8w autonomous passenger cars, 33.8w autonomous overseas vehicles, and 64.3w new energy vehicles.
Sales of brands such as Deep Blue and Avita have exploded, and the trend of new energy trends is strong. Changan New Energy sold 10.2w vehicles in November, +98.4% over the same period, with brands such as Deep Blue, Avita, and Qiyuan all performed well; Deep Blue sold 3.6w units in November, S05 delivered more than 1w units in 40 days, and S07 delivered 1.7w units; Qiyuan sold 1.8w units in November, with a cumulative total of 13.1w units delivered in January-November; Avita's sales volume in November reached 1.2w units, an increase of more than 180% over the same period last year; we expect the company's new energy product pace to continue to strengthen and follow up The trend of new energy consumption will continue to intensify.
Major shareholders are increasing to help research and development of new energy technology and products. The company announced a fixed increase plan to target shares to 3 specific targets, including the actual controllers, China Changan and Southern Assets, and its subsidiaries, China Changan to subscribe for 1 billion, and Southern Asset plans to subscribe for 3.5 billion; part of the capital raised from the issuance to specific targets will be used to invest in new energy model development and product platform technology upgrade projects. Through the implementation of this project, the company will launch a variety of new energy products, covering various models such as sedans, SUVs, MPVs, etc. It greatly enriches the company's new energy product lineage; at the same time, part of the funds raised to specific targets will be used to invest in global R&D center construction and core capacity enhancement projects. Through the implementation of this project, Changan Automobile will focus on solving the business pain points that currently constrain development, build a scientific research and design highland and intelligent testing test base, meet the needs of project design resources, support the implementation of intelligent strategies, strengthen core system business capabilities such as design and intelligent testing, and further enhance the company's overall competitive strength.
Profit forecast: We expect revenue of 181.56/230.84/277 billion yuan in 24-26, with year-on-year growth rates of 20%, 27%, and 20% in that order. We expect net profit to mother to be 5.55/10.2/12.29 billion yuan for 24-26, respectively. The year-on-year growth rates will be -51%, 84%, and 21% in that order, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Industry growth is slowing down due to the slowdown in the penetration rate of new energy sources, increased industry competition due to increased supply of new models, risk that market acceptance of new models will fall short of expectations, and public data used in research reports may be delayed or not updated in a timely manner.
