手机光学创新升级持续，看好ASP和毛利率进一步提升。手机摄像模组端，行业层面各手机厂商自2H23 起对光学升级态度积极，例如今年10 月发布的荣耀Magic7、小米15、vivo X200 等旗舰新机均升级到了5000 万像素三摄，同时公司层面更专注于中高端项目，因此，尽管1-11 月模组出货量同比下滑8%，但我们预计2H24 模组产品的ASP和毛利率有望较1H24 进一步提升，带动全年模组利润稳健增长。手机镜头端，1-11 月出货量同比增长15%，我们预计全年增速或将高于公司指引，同时，伴随更多6P、7P和玻塑混合镜头的出货，2H24 镜头的ASP和毛利率有望高于1H24。展望25 年，一方面，近期江苏、贵州等省份的手机补贴政策落地，我们认为或有助于刺激消费者换机需求，看好公司作为国产安卓手机光学产品核心供应商的获益；另一方面，我们认为光学或仍将是手机微创新的主要切入点，包括玻塑混合镜头、潜望模组下沉、像素升级等方面，公司产品结构有望进一步升级。The company's recent situation
Shunyu Optical Technology announced November shipment data: 1) Mobile phone optics: The company shipped 37.406 million pieces of mobile phone camera modules, down 28.1% year-on-year and up 10.7% month-on-month, mainly due to the company's focus on middle and high-end projects, which led to a year-on-year decline in shipments but a significant improvement in product structure. Mobile phone lens shipments were 0.111 billion films, down 5.6% yoy/3.9% month-on-month. We believe this is due to a seasonal decline in demand for delivery. Dalliguang's monthly revenue fell 11.5% yoy/8.2% month-on-month during the same period. 2) Vehicle-related products: The company shipped 7.459 million pieces of automotive lenses, up 9.9% year-on-year, down 14.3% month-on-month, mainly due to inventory control by customers at the end of the year. 3) Other: Other optoelectronic products shipped 6.052 million films, up 241.7% year on year, and other lenses shipped 15.888 million films, up 133.1% year on year. We think they are mainly driven by AR/VR.
reviews
The innovation and upgrading of mobile phone optics continues, and I am optimistic that ASP and gross margin will increase further. On the mobile phone camera module side, various mobile phone manufacturers at the industry level have taken a positive attitude towards optical upgrades since 2H23. For example, new flagship models such as the Honor Magic7, Xiaomi 15, and vivo X200 released in October this year have all been upgraded to 50 million pixel triple cameras. At the same time, the company level is more focused on high-end projects. Therefore, although module shipments from January to November fell 8% year on year, we expect the ASP and gross margin of 2H24 module products to increase steadily over 1H24, driving a steady increase in module profits throughout the year. On the mobile phone lens side, shipments in January-November increased 15% year-on-year. We expect the annual growth rate to be higher than the company's guidelines. At the same time, with more shipments of 6P, 7P and glass plastic hybrid lenses, the ASP and gross margin of 2H24 lenses are expected to be higher than 1H24. Looking ahead to 25 years, on the one hand, the recent implementation of mobile phone subsidy policies in Jiangsu, Guizhou and other provinces, we believe it may help stimulate consumer switching demand and be optimistic about the company's benefits as a core supplier of optical products for domestic Android phones; on the other hand, we believe that optics may still be the main entry point for micro-innovation in mobile phones, including glass plastic hybrid lenses, sinking periscope modules, and pixel upgrades. The company's product structure is expected to be further upgraded.
Wearable AI products are being released intensively, and we are optimistic about the long-term growth space of the company's AR/VR products. Shipments of the company's other optoelectronic products/other lenses increased 63%/51% year-on-year respectively in January-November. We believe this was mainly due to the increase in shipments of AR/VR/wearable AI terminals and the improvement of stand-alone optical configurations. Various products such as OlaFriend AI headsets, Xiaodu AI glasses, and Rokid Glasses AR glasses were released in October-November. We are optimistic about wearable products as long-term incremental space for important human-computer interfaces, and the company already has a comprehensive product layout such as sensing and interactive cameras, Pancake, optical waveguides, and optical machines, which is expected to fully benefit from this trend.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We are optimistic about the increase in gross margin brought about by the upgrading of Shunyu Optics' product structure. Net profit due to 2024/2025 will be raised by 5%/15% to 2.603/3.308 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 2024/2025 P/E24.4x/19.5x. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating, considering that optical innovation and upgrades are expected to continue and bring stronger growth momentum to the company, we raised our target price by 11% to HK$70.4, corresponding to 2024/2025 P/E 27.3x/21.8x, which is a 12% increase from the current stock price.
risks
Demand for global terminals continues to weaken, and the progress of intelligence in the automotive industry falls short of expectations.
