资产收购有望助力公司业绩增厚和盈利稳定性提升。公司发布《关于收购陕煤电力集团有限公司股权暨关联交易的公告》，拟通过非公开协议方式现金收购陕西煤业化工集团有限责任公司（简称“陕煤集团”）持有的陕煤电力集团有限公司（简称“陕煤电力集团”）88.6525%的股权。我们预期此次收购将有助于公司减少关联交易，增加营收规模，同时通过“煤电一体化”上下游协同的模式，熨平煤价波动周期，提高盈利稳定性，在此背景下公司的红利股属性有望进一步凸显。The company's recent situation
The company announced on December 6 that it intends to acquire shares in Shaanxi Coal Electric Power Group and distribute an interim dividend for the third quarter of 2024.
reviews
Asset acquisitions are expected to boost the company's performance and improve profit stability. The company issued the “Notice Concerning the Acquisition of Shaanmei Electric Power Group Co., Ltd.” It intends to acquire 88.6525% of the shares of Shaanxi Coal Electric Power Group Co., Ltd. (“Shaanxi Coal Power Group”) held by Shaanxi Coal Chemical Group Co., Ltd. (“Shaanxi Coal Group”) in cash through a private agreement. We expect that this acquisition will help the company reduce related transactions, increase the scale of revenue, and at the same time iron out the coal price fluctuation cycle and improve profit stability through the “coal and electricity integration” upstream and downstream collaboration model. In this context, the company's dividend stock attributes are expected to be further highlighted.
The main business of the proposed acquisition of power assets is thermal power. According to the asset evaluation report, the main business of Shaanxi Coal Electric Power Group is thermal power, which has a coal-fired generator assembly capacity of 18,300 MW, of which the unit capacity is 8,300 MW in operation and 10,000 MW of the unit under construction (we estimate the unit cost data of coal power units under construction by leading companies, and it is estimated that 10,000 MW corresponds to a total cost of about 30-40 billion yuan).
The proposed acquisition of electricity assets is at a good level of profit. According to financial reports, the net profit of Shaanxi Coal Electric Power Group in 2023 was 2.067 billion yuan (corresponding net profit margin was 11.7%, ROE was 22%), and net profit to mother was 1.358 billion yuan from January to October 2024 (corresponding net profit margin was 11.6%, 10M24 ROE was 13.9%). In horizontal comparison, as of 3Q24, the net profit margin of the 29 listed companies in the A-share China Securities Thermal Power sector averaged 7.9% (maximum 22.8%, median 7.3%), and the ROE (TTM) average was 5.9% (maximum 17.1%, median 6.5%).
The corresponding P/B of the electricity assets to be acquired is 1.50x, which is relatively low. According to the asset evaluation report, the net asset book value assessed by Shaanxi Coal Electric Power Group is 11.778 billion yuan, and the valuation value is 17.704 billion yuan, implying that the valuation multiplier for this transaction is about 1.50 x P/B. The price corresponding to the company's acquisition of 88.6525% of its shares is 15.695 billion yuan. In a horizontal comparison, the acquisition valuation of Shaanxi Coal Electric Power Group is lower than the current (12/6) average P/B (MRQ) of 1.88x of the 29 listed companies in the A-share China Securities Thermal Power Sector.
It is proposed to distribute mid-term dividends for the third quarter to actively return investors. The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.103 yuan/share (tax included) for the third quarter, accounting for 19% of earnings per share for the third quarter. Adding the interim dividend of 0.103 yuan/share (tax included) for the first half of this year, we estimate that the company may have accumulated cash dividends of 0.212 yuan/share (tax included) in the first three quarters, accounting for 12.9% of the company's earnings per share for the first three quarters.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We keep the company's profit forecast and target price unchanged.
risks
Demand recovery fell short of expectations; project progress fell short of expectations.
