成本结构。①毛利率：创历史新高达44.9%，同比提升3.1pct，主因海外直营市场收入占比提升和TOPTOY 产品组合优化。②费用率：销售费用率22%，同比增长5.1pct，主要受直营门店相关费用影响；管理费用率5.2%，同比增长0.7pct。③经调净利率：经调净利6.9 亿元，同比增长7%；经调净利率15.2%，同比下降1.8pct。Mingchuang Premium announced its 3Q earnings report on November 29th. Revenue was 4.52 billion yuan, up 19% year on year; adjusted net profit was 0.69 billion yuan, up 7% year on year; adjusted net interest rate was 15.2%, down 1.7 pct year on year. The company maintained a 20-30% year-on-year increase in revenue in 2024, and the adjusted net profit guideline of 2.8 billion yuan remained unchanged.
Domestic business revenue was 2.71 billion yuan, up 9% year on year; of these, the revenue of famous brands was 2.44 billion yuan, up 6% year on year. ① O2O boosts the same store. From January to September, due mainly to the volume of orders, the same store experienced a year-on-year decline in MSD; the O2O business increased by nearly 80% year-on-year, which provided some support for the same store. ② The number of stores is growing steadily. By the end of September, the total number of famous stores in China was 4,250, a net increase of 135 over the previous month, with a net increase of 22/66/47 in first-tier, second-tier, third-tier cities and below. ③ Create an innovative store format matrix. At the October brand upgrade conference, a seven-tier store matrix strategy was launched from the two dimensions of IP scenarios and category scenarios to further develop the potential for interested consumption. ④ TOPTOY has been profitable for 4 consecutive quarters, and overseas expansion begins. Revenue was 0.27 billion yuan, up 50% year on year; the number of stores reached 234, a net increase of 39 over the previous month. Furthermore, after TOPTOY brand products first entered overseas in a store-to-store model at its flagship store in Jakarta, Indonesia in August, the first overseas store was opened in Bangkok, Thailand in October, and the Southeast Asia region will become the main market in the future.
Overseas business revenue was 1.81 billion yuan, up 40% year over year. On a comparable scale, in January-September, the direct-management/agency market each increased HSD, GMV increased 73%/18% year over year (1H growth rate 79%/29% each), and revenue increased 67%/20% year over year (74%/16% each 1H growth rate). ① By region: Latin America/Asia (excluding China) /North America/Europe, same stores each grew Low Teens/HSD/MSD/LSD. ② Exhibits: As of the end of September, there were 2,936 overseas stores, a net increase of 183 over the previous month; Asia (excluding China) /North America/Europe/Latin America each had a net increase of 88/60/16/14.
Cost structure. ① Gross profit margin: A record high of 44.9%, an increase of 3.1 pct over the previous year, mainly due to increased revenue share in overseas direct sales markets and optimization of TOPTOY product portfolio. ② Expense rate: The sales expense ratio was 22%, up 5.1 pct year on year, mainly affected by expenses related to direct-run stores; the management expense ratio was 5.2%, up 0.7 pct year on year. ③ Adjusted net interest rate: adjusted net profit of 0.69 billion yuan, up 7% year on year; adjusted net interest rate was 15.2%, down 1.8 pct year on year.
Progress of the transaction to acquire Yonghui Supermarket shares. The company signed an agreement to acquire 29.4% of Yonghui's shares in September. Currently, the transaction circular has obtained unobjection confirmation from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The market supervisory and regulatory agency has publicized a simple case of concentration of operators (the publicity period has ended), and the progress is in line with the company's expectations. The external loan amount for this transaction was no less than 60% of the investment amount, or 3.76 billion.
Update profit forecasts and valuations. We expect the company's total revenue for 2024-2026 to 17.2/21.6/25.6 billion yuan each, up 24%/25%/18% year on year; adjusted net profit of 2.8/3.53/4.23 billion yuan each, up 19%/26%/20% year on year; corresponding EPS 2.24/2.82/3.38 yuan each. Based on 20-25 times PE in 2024, calculate the reasonable value range of HKD48.1-60.2 per share (calculated as 1HKD=0.93 CNY); maintain the “superior to market” rating.
Risk warning. There is a risk that the economy will decline, industry competition will intensify, and store expansion and sub-brand development will fall short of expectations.