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Slammed 25% XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) Screens Well Here But There Might Be A Catch

Simply Wall St ·  Dec 7, 2024 21:09

XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 25% share price drop in the last month. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 44% share price drop.

After such a large drop in price, XP's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10x might make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 20x and even P/E's above 36x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

XP certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this strong earnings performance might be less impressive moving forward. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

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NasdaqGS:XP Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry December 7th 2024
Keen to find out how analysts think XP's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Is There Any Growth For XP?

The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as low as XP's is when the company's growth is on track to lag the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 19% gain to the company's bottom line. The strong recent performance means it was also able to grow EPS by 42% in total over the last three years. So we can start by confirming that the company has done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Turning to the outlook, the next year should generate growth of 14% as estimated by the nine analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , the company is positioned for a comparable earnings result.

With this information, we find it odd that XP is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting lower selling prices.

The Final Word

XP's P/E has taken a tumble along with its share price. While the price-to-earnings ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of earnings expectations.

We've established that XP currently trades on a lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is in line with the wider market. When we see an average earnings outlook with market-like growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing pressure on the P/E ratio. At least the risk of a price drop looks to be subdued, but investors seem to think future earnings could see some volatility.

A lot of potential risks can sit within a company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for XP with six simple checks.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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