Listed for more than 22 years, the stock price has risen nearly 10 times. This is the story of the streaming set-top box Roku-- known as the American version of "XIAOMI Box". At the beginning, the small company of more than 1 billion US dollars has grown into the darling of the market of 10 billion US dollars. Can we continue to write brilliance in the future?

The performance was very bright, with Roku up 10% before trading.

After U. S. stocks opened on Thursday, Roku released its fourth-quarter 2019 results, which overall showed a bright performance. Before Friday's trading, shares were up 10% as of press time.

"I think the fourth quarter performed very well," said Vasily Karasyov, an analyst at Cannonball Research. The short sellers will be disappointed.

• Year-on-year increase in revenue49%To $411.2 million, analysts expect it to be $392 million

• The loss was $15.7 million, or 13 cents per share, in line with analysts' expectations, compared with a loss of 6.8 million or 5 cents per share in the same period last year.

• ARPU (revenue per user) was $23.14, an increase over the same period last year.29%, 20 cents lower than analysts' expectations

• Active accounts increased compared with the same period last year36%That is, 9.8 million to 36.9 million; the viewing time of users of Roku products increased.60%To 11.7 billion hours; both exceeded analysts' expectations.

But it's worth noting thatOperating expenses were $179 million, a year-on-year increase of 68 per cent. In the future, we need to focus on this area, how the growth efficiency brought by investment, we can observe the ability of Roku market expansion and the competitive environment.

For the future, Roku is optimistic at the moment.

According to Roku, benefiting from the launch of new streaming platforms and the general trend of "line-cutting families", revenue is expected to remain in 2020 after a high revenue growth of 52% in 2019.42%The growth rate.

Roku expects a median annual income of $1.6 billion and a market of $1.58 billion in 2020.The median net loss is $170 million and the market is expected to lose $53 million.

Executives pointed out that the huge global streaming video market has given Roku the possibility of making a profit, and will further increase investment and consolidate its market position in the future.The increase in spending also led to a loss guidance that far exceeded market expectations.

Obviously, the market desire for Roku profit is more obvious.Wall Street expects the company to make a full-year profit in 2021. This is not only a prediction, but also an expectation.

Looking back on Roku's more than two years of soul-stirring

2019 is known by many as the first year of the streaming video war. At the end of the year, Apple Inc and Walt Disney Company respectively launched their own streaming video platforms, Jianzhi Netflix Inc. In addition,$Comcast Corp (CMCSA.US) $和$AT&T Inc (T.US) $It will also launch its own platform later this year.

For Roku, the streaming platform was the beneficiary in the early days of the fierce battle. Because the fiercer the war is, the faster potential users will move to streaming video services.There is a premise that Roku is a leader in the smart TV set-top box industry and will benefit even more. Roku and Amazon.Com Inc Fire TV account for more than 70 per cent of the US set-top box market, with about 40 per cent of Roku TV Box and nearly 30 per cent of Roku TV Box. In addition, according to Roku's CEO Anthony Wood, nearly 1/3 of smart TVs sold in the United States in 2019 have Roku TV systems installed.

Let's review the breathless performance of Roku's stock price for more than two years since its listing.

• In 2017, Roku went public at $14, valuing it at $1.3 billion. It is now over $16 billion, with the latest closing price of $139.05.

After Roku went public, it rose sharply on the first day, and then it was flat and consolidated for more than a month. But then it soared.A cumulative increase of 228% for the whole year. Nai soared by 55% in the same year.

Streaming media set-top box manufacturer?

Maybe many people don't like it at first, thinking that Roku is just a small company that makes TV boxes, and the story is not sexy. It was later found that the first financial report after listing was relatively bright, with revenue growth of as high as 40%, which was the fuel for the first take-off of the stock price.

• In 2018, Roku was volatile, from as high as $77 to as low as $26, falling 41 per cent for the year. Nai Fei rose 39% in the same year. The market began to re-examine the soaring company.

• 2019年，It seems to be a crucial year for the streaming video industry. We often see the news of the challenge of Netflix Inc's competitors, and many people call this year"the first year of streaming Video War"。

Roku staged the drama of "the mantis pounces on the cicada, the yellow sparrow is behind", and the internationalization strategy is rolled out. This year, Roku is up 337%, while Netflix is up 21%.

Investors are keenly aware: Oh, this is not just a company that sells set-top boxes, it is a platform for streaming video services, a company that mainly relies on TV advertising to generate revenue, and a surfer who adapts to the trend in the trend of streaming video.

As Mr. Lei said, to be a pig standing on the tuyere, if the tuyere stands right, the pig can also fly.

Roku service consists of two parts: platform business and hardware business. The platform business accounted for 78% of the total in 2019, to $740.8 million, with advertising accounting for the largest share.Advertising data are optimistic: Roku says the number of ad exposures doubled in 2019 and is expected to double in 2020.Last October, Roku bought Dataxu, a platform for optimizing advertising effects, for $150 million, a sign of Roku's determination to make a big difference in TV advertising.

Summary

In 2020, Roku closed up 4% as of Feb. 13, a lacklustre performance. Bears are back again, after all, 2019 is too free.

The competition in the streaming media industry is becoming increasingly fierce, which has both advantages and disadvantages.

On the bright side, as we said earlier, the wind on the tuyere accelerates and can fly higher. At present, there are many participants and planned entrants of streaming video in the market, so Roku, as a platform, has more advantages.

On the other hand, the tuyere will always pass, and the industry is becoming more and more mature, each becoming a trend, the advantages compared with Fire TV and Apple TV will gradually weaken, and the competitive pressure of Roku will increase.

The current PS of Roku is about 16 times, higher than Netflix Inc and higher than many star companies, and the current valuation level is not cheap. 2020The stock price is hardly as magnificent as it used to be, and given its high growth, the market may be more tolerant.