乘用车销量连续2 个月破50 万辆，豹8 发布驱动高端品牌销量占比环比提升。公司2024 年11 月乘用车销量50.4 万辆，同/环比+67.23%/+0.69%，连续2 个月乘用车销量破50 万辆。分能源类型看，纯电/插混乘用车实现销量19.8/30.6 万辆，同比+16.41%/+133.13%，环比+4.46%/-1.60%，在DM-i5.0 换代车型领先的动力&能耗水平驱动下，插混销量占比同比+17.2pct 至60.70%。分品牌看，王朝&海洋两网/方程豹/腾势/仰望实现销量48.5/0.9/1.0/0.03 万辆。公司销量基本盘稳定的同时，高端品牌不断突破。在11 月中旬发布的方程豹豹8 助力下，11 月公司旗下方程豹、腾势和仰望等高端品牌销量占比3.74%，环比+0.3pct。Incidents:
BYD released its sales report for November 2024: in November 2024, the company sold 0.507 million vehicles, +67.87%/+0.83% month-on-month; the cumulative sales volume for January-November 2024 was 3.757 million vehicles, +40.02% year-on-year.
Opinions:
Passenger car sales broke 0.5 million units for 2 consecutive months, and the release of Leopard 8 drove a month-on-month increase in the share of high-end brand sales. The company sold 0.504 million passenger cars in November 2024, +67.23%/+0.69% month-on-month, breaking 0.5 million passenger car sales for 2 consecutive months. By energy type, pure electric/plug-in hybrid passenger cars achieved sales volume of 0.198/0.306 million units, +16.41%/+133.13% year over year, and +4.46%/-1.60% month-on-month. Driven by the leading power & energy consumption level of the DM-i5.0 replacement model, plug-in hybrid sales accounted for +17.2 pct to 60.70% year over year. By brand, Dynasty & Ocean Networks/Equation Leopard/Tensei/Yangwang achieved sales of 48.5/0.009/0.01/0.0003 million vehicles. While the company's sales volume is stable, high-end brands continue to break through. With the help of Equation Panbao 8, which was released in mid-November, the company's high-end brands such as Equation Bao, Tension, and Yangwang accounted for 3.74% of sales in November, +0.3 pct compared to the previous month.
A rich reserve of new products supports the company's high-end process. By brand, Dynasty & Ocean are rich in high-end product reserves of 0.2 million yuan or more. Both Han L/Tang L, which are positioned higher than the Han/Tang series, are expected to be released in 2025Q1. It is expected to be equipped with the DM-i5.0 system, which will drive the average price increase of BYD's basic models; the first MPV under Dynasty Network is expected to be launched in 2025Q1. The power/intelligence side is equipped with the DM-i5.0 system and the Dilink 150 smart cockpit, which may be priced at 0.3 million. Tense's large SUV, the Tense N9, is expected to be launched in 2025Q1. It is equipped with Easy Sanfang technology as standard, supports independent rear-wheel steering, and provides both pure electric/plug-in hybrid power types. The price is expected to be over 0.4 million yuan.
Overseas production capacity will gradually be implemented in 2024-2025, supporting the continuous increase in overseas sales.
In 2024-2025, we will enter an intensive production period at the company's overseas plants. Among them, the Uzbek factory and Thailand plant will be put into operation in June/July 2024, respectively, and production is expected to gradually rise to 0.05/0.15 million vehicles, respectively. BYD's plant in Brazil is expected to be put into operation in 2025H1, with an annual production capacity of 0.15 million vehicles, and the production of models such as the Dolphin, Song Plus, and Yuan Plus. In addition, the company's overseas plants in the planning stage include a Mexican plant and a Hungarian plant. According to the above plan, the company will have a localized production capacity layout at major destinations for Chinese cars to go overseas, such as Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe, to support the continuous growth of the company's overseas sales.
Profit forecast and investment rating: The company's basic sales volume is stable and reserves of high-end new products are expected to support the company in advancing the high-end process. We expect the company's net profit to be 39.896/50.457/57.955 billion yuan respectively in 2024-2026. The current stock price corresponds to PE 20.1/15.9/13.8 times, and the average PE value of comparable companies is 25.5/18.1/14.4 times. BYD PE is lower than the average value of comparable companies, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Competition in the industry intensifies; product sales fall short of expectations; geopolitical risks; overseas production base construction falls short of expectations; prices of upstream raw materials have increased; there are errors in estimates, subject to reality.
