国内市场持续深耕，新产品加速入院推广。截至2024 年第三季度，公司产品累计进入国内超2400 家医院，Castor 分支型主动脉覆膜支架及输送系统累计覆盖超1100 家终端医院、Minos 腹主动脉覆膜支架及输送系统累计覆盖超900 家终端医院、Reewarm PTX 药物球囊扩张导管累计覆盖超1100 家终端医院；新产品入院推广持续放量，Fontus 分支型术中支架系统累计进入超200 家医院，Talos 直管型胸主动脉覆膜支架系统累计进入超300 家医院。Key points of investment:
Event: On December 5, 2024, the company announced the “2024 Employee Stock Ownership Plan (Draft)”. The performance targets of this employee stock ownership plan require that the company's net profit for 2025 should not be less than 0.6 billion yuan, the cumulative net profit value for 2025-2026 should not be less than 1.32 billion yuan, and the cumulative net profit value for 2025-2027 should not be less than 2.184 billion yuan, corresponding to a net profit growth rate of about 20% per year. According to the company's estimates, it is estimated that the first partial cost amortization granted by the employee stock ownership plan will be 1.1646 million yuan, 27.2333 million yuan, 10.4813 million yuan, and 4.1208 million yuan in 24-27 years, respectively.
Aortic stents were affected by terminal price adjustments, etc., and 24H2 performance was disrupted in stages. After the price of thoracic aortic stent products was adjusted in August 2024, all manufacturers adjusted the prices of abdominal aortic stent products in September 2024 under the guidance of government departments such as the National Medical Security Administration. The online prices of thoracic and abdominal aortic stent products from various manufacturers have been adjusted by health insurance bureaus and pharmaceutical collection agencies in various provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities, etc. The terminal price of the company's thoracic aortic stent products was reduced by about 40% or more. The terminal price of the company's abdominal aortic laminating stent products was adjusted and reduced by about 20% to 35%. Without considering the impact of profit and loss caused by non-operating risk factors, the company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies to increase by around 0-10% in 2024.
The domestic market continues to be deeply cultivated, and the promotion of new products is being promoted at an accelerated pace. As of the third quarter of 2024, the company's products had entered more than 2,400 domestic hospitals, the Castor branch aortic stent and delivery system covered more than 1100 terminal hospitals, the Minos abdominal aortic stent and delivery system covered more than 900 terminal hospitals, and the Reewarm PTX drug balloon dilatation catheter covered more than 1100 terminal hospitals; new products continued to be promoted, and the Fontus branch intraoperative stent system had entered more than 200 hospitals, Talos direct tube The thoracic aortic laminating stent system has reached more than 300 hospitals.
Global development continues to advance, with overseas sales accounting for more than 10%. The company's global development continues to advance. From January to September 2024, the company's overseas sales revenue increased 75% over the same period last year, accounting for more than 10% for the first time. By the end of the third quarter of 2024, the company had obtained more than 60 overseas registration certificates, and its products had entered clinical application in 40 countries including Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia. In the third quarter of 2024, the company wholly acquired European medical device company Optimum Medical, and its subsidiary LombardMedical became the company's business center in the European market, further achieving the company's comprehensive and in-depth coverage of the European market and helping the company expand in mainstream medical device markets such as the US and Japan.
Profit forecast. We expect the company's 24-26 EPS to be 3.92, 5.06, and 6.07 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit due to mother of 0.483, 0.624, and 0.748 billion yuan respectively. Referring to comparable company estimates and considering the company's high prosperity and leading position in the aortic and peripheral intervention industry, we gave the company 30-35 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 117.5-137.1 yuan, giving it a “superior to the market” rating.
Risk warning: policy risks such as aortic interventional device collection; risk of market competition; risk of R&D progress falling short of expectations; risk that the amount of surgery falls short of expectations.
