In 2024, the first year of its large-scale networking, the goal is to launch 108 satellites; it is estimated that by the end of 2030, the 'Qianfan Constellation' will complete the networking of over 0.015 million satellites.
Financial app Intelligence News learned that Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that as of now, the number of satellites in orbit for the 'Qianfan Constellation' has increased to 54, China has deployed multiple smart satellite factories, and the mass production of commercial satellites will lead to the 'Starry Era'. Technological innovation will create conditions for large-scale production in satellite manufacturing; at the satellite launch end, the commissioning of commercial aerospace launch sites and the development of reusable rockets will significantly reduce launch costs and increase capacity. The development path of the satellite internet industry is becoming clearer, and the breakthrough in mobile direct satellite technology will create broader and long-lasting demand for the satellite internet industry.
Event: On December 5, 2024, at 12:41 PM, at the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, the third batch of networking satellites for the 'Qianfan Constellation' was successfully launched in a 'one arrow, 18 stars' manner, the satellites smoothly entered their designated orbits, all satellites are in normal status, and the launch mission was a complete success.
The main points of the Minsheng Securities report are as follows:
First come, first served for on-orbit resources, the Qianfan plan launches vigorously.
Shanghai Yuansin is building and operating the Qianfan Constellation—a low-orbit satellite constellation composed of tens of thousands of satellites—for the global market in a commercial manner. In 2024, the first year of its large-scale networking, the goal is to launch 108 satellites; it is estimated that by the end of 2030, the 'Qianfan Constellation' will complete the networking of over 0.015 million satellites.
According to the official deployment plan, the first phase of the 'Qianfan Constellation' will deploy 648 satellites, providing regional network coverage; the second phase will deploy 1296 satellites, achieving global network coverage; the third phase plans to have over 0.015 million satellites provide diversified business integration services. Low Earth orbit space is a strategic resource that is widely valued by the international community, such as the USA's SpaceX 'Starlink Program' planning to launch 0.042 million satellites into low orbit by 2027, with over 6000 'Starlink' satellites currently in orbit.
"Qianfan Constellation" network deployment is accelerating continuously and will provide commercial services globally starting in 2025, empowering sectors such as transportation, new energy, smart cities, jiangsu nonghua intelligent agriculture technology, emergency rescue, low-altitude economy, etc.
Chang Zheng 6 will conduct three launch missions, with Yuansin providing official commercial services to Brazil in 2026.
1) At China's Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, the Long March 6A launch vehicle will successfully launch the Qianfan Polar 01 Group, 02 Group, and 03 Group satellites into orbit on August 6th, October 15th, and December 5th of 2024, respectively. The three launches all adopt a stacked layout to carry out the mission of '18 satellites in one launch', with satellites designed in a flat configuration to significantly save internal space of the launch vehicle, enabling high-frequency launches of a large number of satellites, laying the foundation for stacking and launching more satellites in the future.
2) On November 20th, 2024, Yuansin officially signed a cooperation memorandum with the Brazilian state-owned communication company TELEBRAS, providing satellite communication services to Brazil. Through cooperation with TELEBRAS, Yuansin will first realize broadband internet access in remote and underdeveloped areas of Brazil, offering strategic services to schools, hospitals, and rural areas.
Mass production enters the 'stellar' era, and rocket reuse enhances launch capability.
1) Currently, China has deployed multiple smart satellite factories, including the Tianjin base of Aerospace hi-tech holding group and the Shanghai Gesi Aerospace invested by Yuansin. According to the 'Shanghai Action Plan for Promoting Commercial Aerospace Development and Building Space Information Industry Hub (2023-2025)', by 2025, Shanghai will have the capacity for annual production of 50 commercial rockets and 600 commercial satellites. Mass production will lead us into the 'stellar' era. Additionally, leading private satellite and ancillary companies such as Tianyi Research Institute, Aurora Mobile, Aerospace Star Controls, each have their own characteristics;
2) Compared to one-time use rockets, reusable rockets can return to Earth entirely or partially after completing scheduled launch missions, land safely, undergo maintenance, refueling, and be used for another launch. Currently, domestic aerospace technology groups and leading private commercial rocket companies such as Star River Power are actively exploring reusable rocket technology.
Investment advice:
It is recommended to pay attention to Smart Share(688636.SH), Shaanxi Huada(301517.SZ), Jushri Technologies, Inc(300762.SZ), Beijing Relpow Technology(300593.SZ), Hwa Create Corporation(300045.SZ), Guangzhou Haige Communications Group Incorporated(002465.SZ), Chengdu M&S Electronics Technology(688311.SH), Aerospace Hi-Tech Holding Group(688523.SH), Xi'an Bright Laser Technologies(688333.SH), China Spacesat(688543.SH), China Satellite Communications(600118.SH), China Satellite Communications(601698.SH), Shaanxi Zhongtian Rocket Technology(003009.SZ), Sray New Materials(688102.SH), etc.
Risk Warning: Satellite manufacturing progress falling below expectations, rocket launch progress falling below expectations, etc.
