主业改革转型以应对市场挑战，零售和物流园业务为基本盘。公司重塑门店新场景，提升产品、体验、服务，加强供应链建设，试点新模式如“阿福鲜生”“合家福优选”，并推出自有品牌产品。农批通过旗下三大物流园形成了覆盖华东、皖北等地区的农产品流通网络，成立农产品流通运营总部，聚焦旗下农批市场资源整合，实现一体化协同发展。Core views:
Hebai Group is a leading comprehensive commercial and trade distribution enterprise in Anhui Province. With retail and agricultural product wholesale as its main business, it is actively expanding the five major new businesses of “online, cross-border, cold chain, consumer finance, and emerging industries”. As of 2024H1, the company has 24 department stores, 199 supermarkets (of which 180 are directly operated and 19 are franchised), and 25 home appliance stores in Anhui Province, distributed in many key cities in Anhui Province, and the regional brand influence is strong. 2024H1's revenue increased 2.02% year-on-year to 3.7 billion yuan, with department stores (including home appliances) accounting for 35.95% of revenue, supermarkets accounting for 49.62% of revenue, agricultural products trading services accounting for 8.31%, and real estate accounting for 6.11%.
Adhering to the “1125” development strategy, the two core businesses of retail and agricultural products wholesale have been transformed and upgraded to consolidate market competitiveness and grow bigger and stronger. At the same time, the five major new businesses of “online, cross-border, cold chain, consumer finance, and emerging industries” have been steadily laid out, actively seeking high-quality industrial transformation and upgrading.
The main business reform and transformation is based on dealing with market challenges, retail and logistics park businesses. The company reshapes new store scenarios, enhances products, experiences and services, strengthens supply chain construction, pilots new models such as “Afu Xiansheng” and “Hejiafu Preferred”, and launched its own brand products. Through its three logistics parks, Nongbi has formed an agricultural product distribution network covering East China, northern Anhui and other regions, and has set up an agricultural product distribution and operation headquarters to focus on the integration of resources in its agricultural approval market to achieve integrated and collaborative development.
The company actively expands new business formats and participates in a number of private equity funds to empower the transformation and upgrading of the enterprise industry. In April 2024, the company acquired 5% of Hefei Jintaiyang's shares to carefully test new fields of hydropower through low-cost, low-risk methods.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 0.29/0.33/0.4 billion yuan, respectively, up 8.0%/15.7%/20.7% year-on-year. Considering that the company is actively experimenting with new industries on the basis of a steady retail business, the overall prosperity and valuation of the sector has recently increased. The company was given 20 times PE in 25 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 8.46 yuan/share. For the first time, coverage was given, and a “buy” rating was given.
Risk warning. The macro situation falls short of expectations; risk of industry transformation; intensification of market competition, etc.
