Tencent Holdings (00700.HK): The operating side met expectations and the apparent profit exceeded expectations; the steady release of game revenue showed resilience in the advertising business

事项：

发布3Q24 财报，经营端符合预期；非经营性科目带来归母净利润超预期。

本季度公司实现收入1672 亿元，YOY+8%，QOQ+4%，符合预期；实现毛利润888 亿元，YOY+16%，QOQ+3%，符合预期；实现NON-IFRS 口径下归母净利润598 亿元，YOY+33%，QOQ+4%，超预期约10%。

评论：

网络游戏业务：核心产品稳健增长、流水逐步释放为收入。1）国际市场游戏业务实现收入145 亿元，YOY+9%，略低于市场预期。本季度《PUBGM》、《荒野乱斗》仍然取得了较好的表现，《VALORANT》发布主机版本带动流水YOY+30%以上；流水增速仍然显著高于收入增速，但部分游戏留存率提升，导致收入递延周期相应延长。我们预计后续季度收入仍将逐步释放；2）本土市场游戏业务实现收入373 亿元，YOY+14%，略超市场预期。预计主要由DNFM 的流水确认，及头部产品稳中有升表现所驱动。3）近期多款产品开启PR，pipeline 中储备有《航海王壮志雄心》、《王者荣耀世界》、《异人之下》等多款产品，叠加前期流水释放为收入，看好后续2 个季度的增速确定性。

社交网络业务：符合预期，预计主要受国内手游规模扩张和小程序游戏驱动。

本季度社交网络业务实现收入309 亿元，YOY+4%，QOQ+2%，符合预期。

一方面受益于确认到社交网络分部的国内手游收入提升，另一方面受益于小程序游戏放量和TME 会员收入，并且部分被直播业务的下滑所抵消。

营销服务业务：微信体系驱动，收入符合预期。本季度实现收入300 亿元，YOY+17%，QOQ 基本持平。预计仍然主要由微信体系中的视频号、小程序、搜一搜等广告位贡献提升所驱动；此外，奥运会亦贡献了较小幅度的品牌广告收入增长。GPM 虽然同比仍提升，但环比略有下降，预计主要来自于奥运会内容成本一次性支出，我们预计后续将恢复。

金融科技与企业服务业务：主要受宏观压力,略低于预期。本季度合计实现收入531 亿元，YOY+2%，QOQ+5%，其中金融科技服务总体收入基本同比持平，经营端与宏观环境相匹配；企业服务业务同比增长，主要由云服务和视频号直播电商服务费增长所驱动。

盈利预测与投资建议：我们调整公司24-26 年收入预期至6586/7179/7713 亿元（原预测为6611/7189/7733 亿元），YOY+8%/9%/7%；调整NON-IFRS 归母净利润预期至2223/2510/2761 亿元（原预测为2186/2440/2711 亿元），YOY+41%/13%/10%。“跟随调整NON-IFRS EPS 预测至24.24/28.09/31.69 元（原预测为23.82/27.28/31.08 元），YOY+45%/16%/13%。给予公司25 年NONIFRSEPS 18xPE 的目标估值水平，对应546.60 港元目标价，维持“推荐”评级。

风险提示：宏观经济波动；产品上线进度不及预期；行业竞争加剧；行业监管趋严

Matters:

The 3Q24 financial report was released, and the operating side met expectations; the net profit from non-operating accounts to the mother exceeded expectations.

The company achieved revenue of 167.2 billion yuan, YOY +8%, and QOQ +4%, in line with expectations; achieved gross profit of 88.8 billion yuan, YOY +16%, and QOQ +3%, in line with expectations; achieved net profit of 59.8 billion yuan under the NON-IFRS scale, YOY +33% and QOQ +4%, exceeding expectations by about 10%.

Commentary:

Online game business: Core products are growing steadily, and turnover is gradually released as revenue. 1) The game business in the international market achieved revenue of 14.5 billion yuan, YOY +9%, which is slightly lower than market expectations. “PUBGM” and “Brawl in the Wild” still achieved good performance this quarter. The release of “VALORANT” drove sales YOY of +30%; the revenue growth rate was still significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, but the retention rate of some games increased, leading to a corresponding extension of the revenue deferral cycle. We expect revenue to be gradually released in the next quarter; 2) The game business in the local market achieved revenue of 37.3 billion yuan, YOY +14%, slightly exceeding market expectations. It is expected to be mainly driven by DNFM's flow confirmation and steady upward performance of leading products. 3) Recently, PR has been launched for various products. The pipeline stocks various products such as “ONE PIECE's Ambition”, “King's Glory World”, and “Under Stranger People”. The pipeline is combined with the revenue released in the early stages, and I am optimistic about the determinism of the growth rate for the next 2 quarters.

Social networking business: In line with expectations, it is expected to be mainly driven by the expansion of domestic mobile games and applet games.

The social networking business achieved revenue of 30.9 billion yuan in the quarter, YOY +4%, and QoQ +2%, in line with expectations.

On the one hand, it has benefited from an increase in domestic mobile game revenue that has been confirmed in the social networking segment, and on the other hand, it has benefited from applet game sales and TME membership revenue, which was partly offset by the decline in the live streaming business.

Marketing service business: Driven by the WeChat system, revenue is in line with expectations. The quarter achieved revenue of 30 billion yuan, YOY +17%, and the QOQ remained basically the same. It is still expected to be mainly driven by the increase in the contribution of advertising slots such as video accounts, applets, and search in the WeChat system; in addition, the Olympics also contributed a small increase in brand advertising revenue. Although GPM still increased year over year, it declined slightly from month to month. It is expected mainly due to one-time expenses for Olympic content costs, and we expect it to resume in the future.

Fintech and corporate services business: Mainly under macroeconomic pressure, slightly lower than expected. Total revenue for the quarter was 53.1 billion yuan, YOY +2%, and QOQ +5%. Among them, overall revenue from fintech services remained flat year-on-year, and the operating side was in line with the macro environment; the year-on-year growth in the enterprise service business was mainly driven by the increase in e-commerce service fees for cloud services and live video channels.

Profit forecast and investment advice: We adjusted the company's 24-26 revenue forecast to 658.6/717.9/771.3 billion yuan (the original forecast was 661.1/718.9/773.3 billion yuan), YOY +8%/9%/7%; adjusted the NON-IFRS net profit forecast to 222.3/251/276.1 billion yuan (the original forecast was 218.6/244/271.1 billion yuan), YOY +41%/13%/10%. “Following the adjustment of the NON-IFRS EPS forecast to 24.24/28.09/31.69 (the original forecast was 23.82/27.28/31.08 yuan), YOY +45%/16%/13%. The target valuation level for NONIFRSEPS 18xPE in 25 years corresponds to a target price of HK$546.60, maintaining a “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuations; product launch progress falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; industry regulation is getting stricter

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腾讯控股(00700.HK)：经营端符合预期 表观利润超预期；游戏收入稳步释放 广告业务展现韧性

Tencent Holdings (00700.HK): The operating side met expectations and the apparent profit exceeded expectations; the steady release of game revenue showed resilience in the advertising business

Risk Disclaimer

Statement

腾讯控股(00700.HK)：经营端符合预期表观利润超预期；游戏收入稳步释放广告业务展现韧性