The amount issued by the private sector in fiscal year 2023 is projected to be 1 trillion 288.7 billion yen, reflecting an increase of about 4% from the previous year.

The issuance amount in the private sector for fiscal year 2023 (hereinafter referred to as 'private issuance amount') is estimated to be 1 trillion 288.7 billion yen, an increase of about 4% from 1 trillion 234.2 billion yen in fiscal year 2022. Additionally, with points issued by the government, the combined total is estimated at 1 trillion 566 billion yen (Figure 1).
The main factors for the increase in private issuance amount since fiscal year 2022 are the expansion of cashless payments and the recovery of air travel demand. The issuance amount of points from cashless payments is estimated at 654.1 billion yen for fiscal year 2023, representing an increase of about 15% (84 billion yen) from fiscal year 2022 (Table 1). This is thought to be significantly influenced by the adaptation to the 'new lifestyle' arising from the COVID-19 pandemic and the promotion of cashless payments through initiatives like the My Number Point project. Furthermore, the airline industry is also experiencing sustained demand recovery following restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the issuance amount of points increasing by approximately 31% compared to fiscal year 2022 (Table 1).

Figure 1: Actual (estimated) and forecast values for the annual minimum issuance amount of points and mileage in Japan.

Source: NRI

Table 1: Annual minimum issuance amount of points and mileage by 12 domestic industries for fiscal year 2023 and the basis for calculations.

• The figures mentioned in this document have been rounded off. Therefore, discrepancies may occur when calculations are performed using the provided figures.
• This year, a review is being conducted on the gathering subjects of the 'basic numerical values for point granting' and the 'point application rates' in some industries.

Source: NRI

In the fiscal year 2023, the amount issued by administrative bodies reached 277.3 billion yen.

In 2023, points equivalent to 277.3 billion yen were issued by the government through the 'My Number Points Project'. The 'My Number Points Project' was a policy that continued from June 2020 to September 2023, in which points worth up to 0.02 million yen were granted per person. During this period, it is estimated that a total of over 1.3 trillion yen worth of points were issued, which is approximately equal to the amount of points issued by the private sector in a single year. Although initiatives using points for government measures, such as 'My Number Points Project in individual municipalities', continue, no policies of the same scale as the 'Cashless Point Refund Project' or 'My Number Points Project' have been announced as of now.

In the future, an expansion of crediting point special stores and an increase in the issuance of cashless payment points are expected.

The points issued along with economic activities can be broadly categorized into two types: 'payment points' granted through the use of cashless payments (calculated in this estimation as the issuance amounts through cashless payments) and 'purchase points' granted through the use of stores providing point services and non-payment services.
Regarding "settlement points", there are cases where a "settlement point specialty store" with a higher points cumulative rate than usual has been established, and recently crediting card companies have been actively pursuing this initiative. Specifically, Mitsui Sumitomo Card will increase the point redemption rate for using touch payments with a smart phone at Seven-Eleven from the previous maximum of 7% to up to 10% starting in October 2024. Additionally, Mitsubishi UFJ Nicos will add establishments like Kurazushi, OK, and Tobu Store as settlement specialty stores that will offer up to 5.5% in points starting in August 2024. The main purpose of these initiatives is to expand the use of crediting cards for small payments and promote the adoption of crediting card touch payments. In the realm of small payments, currently, code payments are mainstream, and the expectation is that the use cases for crediting card touch payments are likely to expand further, especially with their introduction in public transport, which is why similar initiatives from crediting card companies are expected to proliferate in the future.
In addition to the initiatives of these crediting card companies, cashless payments associated with the expanding use of online services such as e-commerce, food delivery, and video streaming are also increasing. Furthermore, the Japanese government is advancing initiatives with a future goal of achieving an 80% cashless payment ratio, which suggests that transaction volumes related to cashless payments and associated issuance amounts are expected to rise. Additionally, the total private issuance amount across 12 industries is forecasted to surpass 1 trillion 600 billion yen in fiscal 2028.

NRI will continue to analyze market trends regarding points and mileage and propose how point programs can promote business.

• 1

  Cashless payments consist of four types: crediting cards, debit cards, electronic money, and code payments. However, before fiscal 2018, only crediting cards were included in calculations. Additionally, when using cashless payments, purchasing points may also be awarded in addition to settlement points, but for "cashless payments", only settlement points are included in the aggregated data.

• 2

  Main companies in 12 domestic industries: The top companies actively issuing points and mileage in the 12 domestic industries (cashless payments, electronics retailers, mobile phones, airlines, gas stations, general supermarkets, convenience stores, e-commerce platforms, department stores, drug stores, dining out, home improvement stores) are providing point program services and have high sales. The number of subject companies is referenced in Table 1.

• 3

  Annual minimum issuance amount: The estimated amount of points and mileage issued is based on the limited number of companies targeted across various industries, excluding those issued regardless of purchase amount such as in-store campaigns and additional issuance points for special members. Furthermore, the point issuance by the government focuses only on major initiatives, hence it is considered the 'annual minimum issuance amount.'

• 4

  Measured values (estimates) and projected values: Regarding points issued by government cashless promotion measures, the numbers for fiscal year 2024 and beyond will be significantly impacted by future policies, and therefore, estimates are not made.

• 5

  Point application rate: The ratio of sales in which points are awarded (where point systems apply) out of the total sales of each company based on providing point cards.

• 6

  Point redemption rate: The ratio of the amount returned to users in points to the original sales amount. For the conversion of airline miles, it is set at 1.5 yen per mile.

• 7

  Transaction handling amount: total value of the amount utilized for cashless payments. However, cashing with credit cards, usage amount of debit cards at domestic ATMs, and transportation usage amount of transportation-related electronic money are excluded.

• 8

  Local government My Number Point project: a business that utilizes a "common platform system for utilizing My Number Cards" that local governments collaborate with payment service providers to identify residents of local governments and realize prompt and effective benefit measures. Local government My Number Points can be searched on the homepage.

For reference: survey overview