商用车需求持续修复，带动盈利向上修复：公司在商用车领域主要产品包括轻卡、轻客、重卡和客车，重卡销量长期处于市场前五。东风商用车是集团重卡生产子公司，拥有独立研发和生产基地，产品涵盖中重型卡车、客车整车与底盘，以及关键动力总成。当前看，商用车内需跟随宏观向好修复，出口空间广阔，不断贡献增量，公司商用车板块有望充分受益。A large state-owned car enterprise group is actively deepening reforms and transformation: the company has many subsidiaries, and its business covers various fields such as commercial vehicles, passenger cars and auto parts. The product lineup covers famous brands and commercial models such as Rantu, Nissan, Infiniti, Kaichen, Logo, and Citroen. At the same time, the transformation of the company's independent sector is accelerating. Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle focuses on R&D and manufacturing of passenger cars such as Fengshen, Fengxing, Nano and Yipai, and has strong market competitiveness and comprehensive strength.
The joint venture business base is stable, and autonomous transformation continues to accelerate: the Group's main joint venture brands are Dongfeng Nissan and Dongfeng Honda. Both achieved sales of 1.58 million vehicles in 2023, accounting for 90+% of the company's passenger car share, and are an important source of profit for the Group. Although the company's joint venture brand has been under pressure for a short period of time, the transformation of its own brands has accelerated. Rantu has launched various models such as FREE, Dreamer, and Chaser, forming a comprehensive layout of SUVs, MPVs, and sedans, and subsequent sales are expected to continue to grow; as a medium to large luxury electric off-road vehicle, the Warrior 917 has successfully entered the hardcore off-road segment and is expected to continue to contribute to growth.
Huawei's cooperation has been deeply empowered, and policy incentives continue to benefit: In February 2024, HUAWEI Auto BU and Dongfeng Mengshi formally signed a strategic cooperation agreement aimed at promoting the sharing of industrial resources and complementary advantages, and the level of intelligence of the company's own brands has been greatly improved. In addition, the company's own brands include Fengshen, Fengxing, and Nano series. The joint venture brands Dongfeng Nissan's Sylphy and Dongfeng Honda's Civic are all positioned at A level or below, fully benefiting from domestic demand stimulation policies, and sales are expected to continue to rise.
Demand for commercial vehicles continues to recover, driving upward profit recovery: The company's main products in the commercial vehicle sector include light trucks, light buses, heavy trucks and buses, and heavy truck sales have long been in the top five in the market. Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle is a heavy truck manufacturing subsidiary of the Group. It has an independent R&D and production base. Its products cover complete vehicles and chassis for medium and heavy trucks and buses, as well as key powertrains. Looking at the moment, domestic demand for commercial vehicles is following a macroeconomic recovery, with broad export space and continuous contributions. The company's commercial vehicle sector is expected to fully benefit.
Profit forecast: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 113.8, 123.4, and 132.1 billion yuan, up 13.6%, 8.5%, and 7.0% year-on-year, and net profit to mother of 0.76, 2.11, and 3.4 billion yuan. Considering that the company will develop rapidly in the field of intelligence and continue to benefit from favorable policies such as trade-in, it was covered for the first time and given a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Competition in the passenger car industry intensifies, commercial vehicle demand recovery falls short of expectations, rising raw material costs, etc.
