前三季度，公司基本面呈现出收入稳步较高增长，盈利大幅改善，费用控制得当的整体特征。公司独辟深海小鱼制品这一零食赛道，其产品矩阵具有鲜明的差异化特点。深海小鱼冲破十亿元大单品规模，做到了市场第一；此外，小包装鹌鹑蛋是公司开发的另一单品，未来有望成为新的大单品。Key points of investment:
Revenue growth was maintained at a high level, but the increase narrowed under a high base. In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 0.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.94%. In the same period, the company's cash receipts from products sold increased by 14.5% year-on-year, which is slightly higher than the increase in revenue. In the third quarter, the company's revenue growth fell 32.98 percentage points year on year and 7.96 percentage points month on month. The increase narrowed under a high base, but overall it maintained a high level of growth. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.65%, and is expected to maintain a growth level of 15% to 20% throughout the year.
Profitability increased, and both gross margin and net profit increased. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company recorded a gross profit margin of 30.28%, an increase of 3.81 percentage points over the previous year. The decline in costs was the main reason. In the same period, the net interest rate increased by 3.19 percentage points to 12.24% year on year. The main reason for this was better control of current expenses. Among the cost ratios, the management expense ratio and the financial expense ratio both declined. The sales expense ratio increased 1.02 percentage points year over year, and the R&D expense ratio increased 0.08 percentage points over the same period last year.
In the first three quarters, the company's fundamentals showed the overall characteristics of steady and high revenue growth, significant profit improvement, and proper cost control. The company has developed a unique snack circuit for deep-sea fish products, and its product matrix has distinct characteristics of differentiation. Deep-sea small fish broke through the 1 billion yuan single product scale and became number one in the market; in addition, small-packaged quail eggs are another single product developed by the company, which is expected to become a new big single product in the future.
Investment advice: We forecast the company's earnings per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.62, 0.84, and 1.01 yuan. Referring to the closing price of 13.15 yuan on December 4, the corresponding price-earnings ratios were 23.56, 17.29, and 14.44 times, respectively, and downgraded the company's rating to “increase holdings.”
Risk warning: As the base expands, sales growth slows; rivals launch similar alternative categories to increase competition on the racetrack; hidden food safety hazards and public opinion risks.
