Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ALRM) shareholders would be excited to see that the share price has had a great month, posting a 28% gain and recovering from prior weakness. Taking a wider view, although not as strong as the last month, the full year gain of 23% is also fairly reasonable.

Following the firm bounce in price, Alarm.com Holdings' price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 27.2x might make it look like a sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 19x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

Recent times have been advantageous for Alarm.com Holdings as its earnings have been rising faster than most other companies. It seems that many are expecting the strong earnings performance to persist, which has raised the P/E. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

How Is Alarm.com Holdings' Growth Trending?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Alarm.com Holdings would need to produce impressive growth in excess of the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 85% gain to the company's bottom line. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 113% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Therefore, it's fair to say the earnings growth recently has been superb for the company.

Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 15% during the coming year according to the eight analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 15% growth , that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we find it concerning that Alarm.com Holdings is trading at a P/E higher than the market. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as these declining earnings are likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Alarm.com Holdings' P/E

The large bounce in Alarm.com Holdings' shares has lifted the company's P/E to a fairly high level. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Our examination of Alarm.com Holdings' analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings are highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Alarm.com Holdings with six simple checks.

If you're unsure about the strength of Alarm.com Holdings' business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.