Key investment points

A platform-based enterprise with an all-round layout based on infusion

A full range of categories in the infusion sector contributed to stable cash flow, diversified transformation and layout of innovative drug, generic drug and API businesses, and became a “three-engine drive+innovative growth” platform enterprise.

Infusion market capacity is stabilizing, and there is broad space for innovative drugs overseas

As a widely used treatment method for clinical use, according to Huajing Intelligence Network, China will produce about 10.5 billion bottles/bag of large infusions in 2022. The main participants include Colon Pharmaceutical, Shihsiyao, Chenxin Pharmaceutical, China Resources Shuanghe, and Harbin Sanlian. Among them, Colon Pharmaceutical, as a leading Chinese infusion manufacturer, sold about 4.38 billion bottles/bags in 2023.

The global innovative drug market is broad, and ADC has a large single-product logic. ADC has the potential to kill accurately, and several products with large single-product potential have emerged. According to Frost & Sullivan's forecast, the global ADC drug market is expected to grow from 14.2 billion US dollars to 64.7 billion US dollars in 2024-2030, with a CAGR of 28.8%.

The “Three Fever Drive” Steady Growth+ “Innovative Growth” new breakthrough infusion is the basic model. On the one hand, dosage upgrades and capacity expansion drive the company's market share increase. On the one hand, the company follows regional volume trends and promotes the expansion of basic infusion production capacity to increase market coverage. On the other hand, the company continues to launch ready-to-use high-end infusions to meet more clinical needs; in addition, generic drugs are being put into production one after another in response to the tenth batch of collection and API synthetic biology, promoting the overall steady growth of “Three Phase Drive”. As a new breakthrough, SKB-264 has the potential to be “best-in-class” and has shown best-in-class efficacy data for multiple indications. Subsequent expansion of generic indications will continue to contribute to sales growth.

Investment advice: Stable profit in the main business combined with innovative breakthroughs. We expect the company's 24-26 revenue to be 22.02/23.298/25.229 billion yuan, respectively, +2.64%/+5.80%/+8.29% year-on-year; net profit to mother was 2.957/3.407/3.893 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.41%/15.19%/14.28%; EPS was 1.85/2.13/2.43 yuan respectively. Comparable, the average PE of the company in 2025 was 22 times. Considering that the company's profits are expected to grow steadily, it was covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: competition in the infusion industry intensifies, competition in the generic drug industry intensifies, sales of innovative drugs fall short of expectations