According to a report from JPMorgan, weichai power (02338) is currently valued attractively, thus maintaining a "shareholding" rating, but lowering the target price for H shares from 22 Hong Kong dollars by 13.6% to 19 Hong Kong dollars, and the target price for A shares from 24 yuan to 21 yuan.

The bank expects weichai power's profits in the fourth quarter of 2024 to grow by 12% year-on-year, setting a historical high for the fourth quarter. The bank anticipates that the pre-tax profit margin will reach 8% in 2024 and 9% in 2025. It is expected that domestic demand for heavy-duty trucks (HDT) from weichai power will be strongly supported by the replacement cycle and policy backing from 2025 to 2026, as well as the company's strong cash flow and substantial cash reserves. The company is also taking measures to enhance shareholder returns, such as increasing the payout ratio.

The report states that heavy truck sales stopped declining in November this year, with domestic sales significantly rebounding, showing a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarterly increase of 23%. Sales of liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks also grew 13% quarter-on-quarter. Looking ahead, CVWorld predicts that wholesale sales in December will reach 0.075 million to -0.08 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 50%. With the subsidy policy ending on December 31, 2024, total sales for 2024 could record 0.9 million units, close to 0.911 million units in 2023. Although the market remains cautious about the demand for heavy trucks in 2025, the bank believes that the expansion of subsidies for China IV standard heavy trucks will create growth space for its sales.