维持“增持” 评级。公司产销压力开始得到缓解，民品行业价格企稳，高端品和降本优势领先行业。考虑到2024 年民品价格压力与部分需求下滑影响未在前期盈利预测中体现充分，因此调整24-26 年EPS 至0.04（-0.36），0.35（-0.14），0.65（-0.04）元，根据可比公司2025 年平均11.1x PS 估值，给予目标价24.93（-7.67）元。Introduction to this report:
The company's production and sales pressure has begun to ease, prices in the civilian goods industry have stabilized, leading the industry with high-end products and cost reduction advantages.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company's production and sales pressure has begun to ease, prices in the civilian goods industry have stabilized, leading the industry with high-end products and cost reduction advantages. Considering that the impact of consumer price pressure and partial demand decline in 2024 was not fully reflected in the previous profit forecast, the 24-26 EPS was adjusted to 0.04 (-0.36), 0.35 (-0.14), 0.65 (-0.04) yuan, and a target price of 24.93 (-7.67) yuan was given based on the comparable company's average valuation of 11.1x PS in 2025.
Demand expectations began to improve, and inventory was accumulated with the end of maintenance. In 2024, the industry faced downward pressure in some demand categories. In Q3, the company's sales volume began to recover month-on-month. Along with the maintenance of some production capacity, the company also began to return to the clean storage cycle. We think there are two reasons for the month-on-month improvement in sales that began in Q3. The first is to give the first-tier market more initiative in terms of price, and the second is to increase strength in fields such as wind power. Looking backwards, wind power and exports may become the main new sectors. There is still room for domestic replacement of sports and leisure. The drag in the photovoltaic sector may usher in an inflection point around 2025 along with improvements in the downstream inventory cycle. Demand for hydrogen energy may maintain steady growth, and the volume of the low-altitude aircraft and construction market is in the preparation stage.
Bulk prices have basically bottomed out, and the high-end market expands or improves average prices. The overall market environment is expected to stabilize month-on-month. Currently, the higher the product performance, the stronger the price stability, but the industry is generally under pressure to remove storage, so the price center is mainly stabilizing. The company relies on technology and production capacity advantages in the fields of small wire bundles, high-end products, and some aerospace products to have a large market influence. It is expected that along with the growth rate of these high-end fields, the growth rate of the company will exceed the overall growth rate of the company, and structural factors may contribute more actively to average price and unit profit. In high-end demand fields such as COMAC, the company's technology and customer card positions are also ahead, and it is expected that the domestic replacement process will follow the domestic production substitution process to further expand its share in the aerospace market with more stable profitability.
Optimize actual costs, repair or increase apparent pressure under customized models. We estimate that the company's unit cost will increase slightly year-on-year in 2024. It is expected that the actual cost reduction process will gradually be implemented due to the drag in production capacity utilization. The company will improve fiber performance from the performance required by the customer and reduce the cost from the performance surplus of the customer. This technical idea will continue. The barrier behind this is a deep understanding of the relationship between process stages and performance parameters. Maintenance may have increased since H2, and the cost per ton may have rebounded slightly under amortization pressure, but expenses have been amortized or improved in the context of storage removal.
Risk warning: The macroeconomy is declining, and the cost of raw materials is rising.
