On December 5, Gelonghui reported that Citigroup released a report indicating that since the policy was announced in September, regulatory bodies in mainland china have been working to establish a "slow bull market" to help boost domestic demand and promote the reallocation of household assets to stocks. Although the market has responded positively to the central policy, the bank believes that the current prices of chinese brokerages may be too high. Since late September, the average increase in H-shares and A-shares of traditional brokerages has been about 70% and 40%, respectively. The bank noted that because the profit sensitivity to bull market conditions in 2024 is lower than in 2015, its sensitivity analysis shows that brokerages cannot provide sufficient net asset return growth to justify the current price-to-book ratio multiples after re-rating. Therefore, although the bank raised its earnings forecast for brokerages to account for the increase in average daily trading volume, it downgraded the ratings of citic sec and haitong sec from "buy" to "neutral." Due to better risk-return prospects, the bank prefers chinese H-share brokerages over A-share brokerages, with htsc and china galaxy as top picks, as they still have high sensitivity to average daily trading volumes and are not highly valued.
大行评级|花旗:目前券商股价可能过高 下调中信证券、海通证券评级至“中性”
Large bank rating | Citigroup: Currently brokerage stock prices may be too high, downgrading citic sec and haitong sec ratings to "neutral".
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