Jinwu Financial News | Guotai Junan said that looking ahead to 2025, “steady state” is still the key word in the coal industry, and coal prices are bottoming out and marginal supply and demand weaken slightly. The bank determined that under the assumption of neutral policy expectations, the paper marginal supply and demand for coal is slightly weaker than in 2024: the core increase in supply comes from an increase in production in Shanxi (about 70 million tons year-on-year increase), but the impact on actual sales will be weaker than the production data; on the demand side, demand for electric coal may still maintain a good growth of 2.5-3% in the context of weakening marginal contributions from hydropower and new energy sources. Regardless of policy impact, demand for steel and cement may continue to decline, but the decline is bottoming out, marginal drag is weakening, and chemical growth remains relatively good. Judging that the supply of coal in 2025 was about 1.2%, slightly larger than 0.9% in 2024, the coal price center may decline slightly. The bottom of the coal price of 800 yuan/ton is clear, and the certainty is still strong.

According to the bank, under progressive policy expectations, seeking “certainty” is also an investment idea. Coal under a normalized allocation is more certain. 1) Institutional holdings have been below the median value of the past 5 years, and the risk of continuing downside is not significant, and the long-term capital allocation logic remains unchanged in the context of declining interest rate cycles at home and abroad; 2) Progressive policy implementation expectations, demand is less likely to be fulfilled after the “new construction starts in spring” in March, and investment certainty may still be an investment idea; 3) Without considering policy incentives in 2025, the certainty of coal fundamentals is likely to still be at the forefront of all industries.