维持“增持” 评级。2025年需求端或受益于政策发力而缓解下滑惯性；盈利端行业常态化与差异化错峰模式或更加成熟，供给端政策不断发力也有望推动行业盈利中枢迎来同比改善。考虑到实物量需求下滑速度较快前期预测未充分体现，下调2024-2026 年EPS 至1.60（-0.32），1.89（-0.38），2.12（-0.46）元，根据可比公司2025 年平均19.8x PE 估值，给予目标价37.33（+4.26）元。Introduction to this report:
In 2025, the demand side may benefit from strong policies to mitigate downward inertia; the profit-side industry's normalization and differentiation erroneous peak model may become more mature, and continuous strength in supply-side policies is also expected to drive the profit center of the industry to usher in year-on-year improvements.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. In 2025, the demand side may benefit from strong policies to mitigate downward inertia; the profit-side industry's normalization and differentiation erroneous peak model may become more mature, and continuous strength in supply-side policies is also expected to drive the profit center of the industry to usher in year-on-year improvements. Considering the rapid decline in physical demand, the 2024-2026 EPS was lowered to 1.60 (-0.32), 1.89 (-0.38), 2.12 (-0.46) yuan, and a target price of 37.33 (+4.26) yuan based on a comparable company's 2025 average PE valuation of 19.8x.
The share advantage is maintained, and strong policies are expected to improve the decline in demand. From January to October 2024, the country's cumulative cement production fell by 10.3%. It is expected that the company's cumulative self-produced sales volume in 2024 will show a share advantage over the national performance. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the downward slope on the cement demand side to narrow. Among them, chemical debt will ease or contribute the most to infrastructure demand, because we expect that broad infrastructure already accounts for the majority of domestic cement demand, and real estate demand is also expected to stabilize relatively steadily in the context of a low base. The core of the company's long-term success in sales is the combination of location advantage and sales capability advantage, and the advantage is expected to be maintained.
The effects of normalization and differentiation of false peaks are expected to be further improved. The biggest characteristic of the domestic cement industry in 2024 is the formation of a new normal of normalization and differentiation to ease the pressure on supply and demand. In Q1-Q3, the entire false peak and price recovery period was a run-in period, and the effect of price increases finally showed the actual performance of “promoting stability through growth”. Beginning in October '24, we observed a qualitative price recovery in the Yangtze River region. Therefore, 24Q4 profitability showed a definite increase in month-on-month improvement. In 2025, we also expect a year-on-year improvement in the profitability of industry units. The core point is that the success rate of false peaks is expected to increase.
Supply-side policies drive improvements in long-term supply and demand patterns. Beginning in 2024, the industrial policy side ushered in the intensive rollout of supply-side optimization policies. Among them, Q4 began to implement policies related to capacity replacement and limit overproduction. We estimate that with the end of the buffer period, the most direct effect may be a further increase in the success rate of right and wrong peak price increases. At the same time, the process of supply-side supply-side production capacity is expected to clear up some of the backward production capacity. From a longer perspective, several supply-side standards such as carbon trading, ultra-low emissions, and energy consumption per unit will gradually improve the supply and demand pattern..
Risk warning: The macroeconomy is declining, and the cost of raw materials is rising.
