According to CCTV news, the US Republican Party ultimately secured 220 seats in the House of Representatives, gaining a majority. Trump has nominated cryptocurrency-friendly Paul Atkins to serve as SEC chairman, and bitcoin surged over 4000 dollars during trading, approaching the 0.1 million dollar mark.

US economic data was weaker than expected, with November ADP adding 0.146 million jobs, the lowest in four months, and the expansion rate of the November ISM services sector was the slowest in three months, significantly below expectations. Following the data release, US Treasury yields plummeted. However, the Federal Reserve's beige book indicated that economic activity increased slightly in most regions of the US, and businesses were more optimistic about future demand.

Powell stated that the economy is stronger than expected, and the Federal Reserve can be 'more cautious' in cutting rates. It is too early to determine the impact of Trump's presidency on interest rates. Next year's voting committee and St. Louis Fed President Bullard noted that the time to pause rate cuts is near, with a possibility of pausing rate cuts as early as this month. Traders raised the probability of a 25 basis points cut this month from 73% to 77.5%, while the probability of pausing rate cuts dropped to 22.5%.

Following the martial law turmoil, volatility increased in the South Korean financial markets, with the South Korean stock market dropping over 2% during trading. The South Korean central bank governor denied the possibility of rate cuts after the crisis. The French government lost the parliamentary no-confidence vote, forcing the government to resign, causing the euro to plunge against the usd from a high point. The OECD sounded the alarm about the global economic growth outlook, warning of crises related to trade tensions, geopolitical issues, and national debt, and advising central banks in developed countries to maintain an accommodative policy.

European Central Bank President Lagarde believes the fight against inflation is nearing its end but is not fully victorious. The ECB will maintain a cautious stance, expecting inflation to fall to target levels within the year. The President of the German central bank, Nagel, stated that he does not oppose a rate cut in December, but the ECB should not cut rates below neutral levels, leading to a reduction in bets on ECB rate cuts. The Bank of England Governor Bailey hinted that four cuts of 25 basis points are the most likely next year, and traders increased their bets on rate cuts, erasing losses in British bonds.

The "AI concept stocks" Salesforce and semiconductor stock Marvell Technology led the tech stocks with strong performance, boosting the U.S. stock market which rose collectively on Wednesday, with the Nasdaq leading the gain. The S&P, Nasdaq, and Dow all reached new highs, with the S&P hitting a new high for the 56th time this year, and both the S&P and Nasdaq achieving new highs for three consecutive days. Most China concept stocks fell back:

• The three major U.S. stock indices rose together. The s&p 500 index closed up 36.61 points, an increase of 0.61%, at 6086.49 points. The Dow, closely related to the economic cycle, rose by 308.51 points, an increase of 0.69%, closing at 45014.04 points. The Nasdaq, which has a large number of technology stocks, rose by 254.21 points, an increase of 1.30%, at 19735.12 points. The Nasdaq 100 index rose 1.24%. The Nasdaq technology market cap weighted index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology components, rose by 1.67%. The Russell 2000 small cap index, which is more sensitive to the economic cycle, rose by 0.42%. The fear index VIX rose by 1.13%, closing at 13.45.

• Most U.S. sector ETFs rose. The internet stock index ETF rose by 2.86%, with technology sector ETF, penghua guozheng semiconductor chip etf, and global technology stock index ETF all rising by at least 1.5%. The medical sector ETF fell by less than 0.1%, the financial sector ETF fell by about 0.4%, and the energy sector ETF fell by more than 2.4%. Among the 11 sectors of the s&p 500 index, the energy sector fell by 2.47%, the materials sector fell by about 0.9%, the telecommunications sector rose by more than 0.6%, the consumer discretionary sector rose by 1.2%, and the information technology/technology sector rose by 1.77%.

• In terms of investment strategy, BlackRock predicts in its 2025 outlook that the AI boom will drive growth in the U.S. stock market and support the economy, although rising debt may affect optimistic expectations. AI technology may benefit the U.S. stock market more than the European stock market.

• The "seven sisters of technology" all rose. Meta rose by 0.02%. Amazon rose by 2.21%. Apple rose by 0.15% for the fourth consecutive day, with reports stating that Apple faced obstacles in developing an AI function tailored for China in partnership with Baidu, which may impact iPhone sales. Nvidia rose by 3.48%, Microsoft rose by 1.44%, Google A rose by 1.77%, and Tesla rose by 1.85%.

• Most semiconductor stocks rose. The phlx semiconductor index closed up 1.71%, at 5121.78 points. The industry etf SOXX rose by 1.71%. The Nvidia double long ETF rose by 6.94%. Marvell Technology rose by 23.19%, achieving the best single-day performance since May 2023, with strong AI demand driving a 19% month-on-month surge in sales, far exceeding expectations. Micron Technology rose by 3.37%, Broadcom rose by 1.43%, AMD rose by 1.42%, Taiwan Semiconductor rose by 0.91%, Arm Holdings rose by 0.66%, Qualcomm rose by 0.47%, while Intel fell by 2.27%, and on semiconductor fell by 5.5%. Synopsys' performance guidance fell short of expectations, with fiscal year 2025 sales guidance below expectations, leading to a stock price drop of 10% after hours.

• Most AI concept stocks rose. The leading company, Salesforce, increased by 10.99%, with Q3 revenue and Q4 performance guidance exceeding expectations. Nvidia-held AI voice company SoundHound AI rose by 14.3%, CrowdStrike rose by 4.06%, Snowflake rose by 6.01%, super micro computer rose by 3.98%, dell technologies rose by 0.43%, BullFrog AI rose by 0.97%, c3.ai rose by 2.29%, Oracle rose by 2.9%, BigBear.ai fell by 7.77%, Palantir fell by 1.56%, and Serve Robotics fell by 1.14%.

• Most china concept stocks declined. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.38%. In the etf, the FTSE China 3x Bull ETF (YINN) fell by 2.19%, the China concept internet index etf (KWEB) fell by 1.54%, and the China technology index etf (CQQQ) fell by 1.18%. The FTSE A50 futures index closed down 0.34% in the overnight session, reporting 13247.000 points.

• Among the popular china concept stocks, zeekr rose by 7.67%, netease rose by 1.6%, Xiaopeng Motors rose by 0.71%, pdd holdings rose by 0.26%, Bilibili fell by 0.31%, NIO fell by 0.86%, alibaba fell by 0.88%, ideal auto fell by 1.23%, baidu fell by 1.51%, jd.com fell by 3.69%, miniso fell by 5.44%, and daqo new energy fell by 8.31%.

• In other key stocks: (1) Eli Lilly's weight loss drug Zepbound outperformed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in the first comparative trial. Eli Lilly rose by 2.03%, while Novo Nordisk ADR fell by 0.21%. (2) The CEO of unitedhealth's Medicare business was assassinated in New York, leading to the emergency cancellation of investor day activities; unitedhealth rose over 2.9% and closed up 0.92%. (3) Shift4 payments fell over 12% after Trump chose the company's CEO to lead NASA. (4) PSQ Holdings, which had a big increase of 270% yesterday, fell nearly 38%, announcing a direct registration issuance of $36.2 million in common stock. (5) Among the key stocks releasing earnings reports, discount day-to-day chain Dollar Tree rose by 5.5% and closed near a 2% increase; the Q3 report was favorable and the CFO will resign. E-commerce pet supplies company Chewy saw a significant narrowing of an 11% drop, with poor Q3 earnings but an annual revenue guidance exceeding expectations. Foot Locker, the athletic shoe retail giant, cut its loss of 20% by half after reporting disappointing earnings and guidance.

The German stock index rose about 1.1%, continuing to reach a historical high, rising for five consecutive days and stabilizing above 0.02 million points; Novo Nordisk fell about 0.3%. French stocks rose, only UK stocks declined, European retail stocks rose over 2% to lead the way, and the world’s fourth-largest automaker Stellantis rose over 1%, amid reports that it appointed the outgoing apple CFO as the new CEO.

• The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.37%, at 517.45 points. The eurozone STOXX 50 index closed up 0.83%, at 4919.02 points. The FTSE pan-European stock select 300 index closed up 0.30%, at 2056.10 points.

• The Italy FTSE MIB index rose by 0.75%. The German DAX 30 index rose by 1.08%. The French CAC 40 index rose by 0.66%. The UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.28%. The Spanish IBEX 35 index rose by 0.49%. The netherlands AEX index rose by 0.19%.

Despite hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the slowdown in US economic data did not change the downward trend of US Treasury yields, with the two-year US Treasury yield dropping more than 7 basis points at one point. The yield spread between French and German bonds slightly narrowed before the no-confidence motion vote. Expectations for a rate cut by the Bank of England increased, and UK bond yields fell back from their highs.

• US Treasuries: At the close, the yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury fell by 4.26 basis points to 4.1820%. At 21:52 Beijing time, it reached a daily high of 4.2789%, then fluctuated downward, hitting a daily low of 4.1723% at 03:31 (before Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech). The yield on the 2-year US Treasury fell by 5.29 basis points to 4.1235%, trading in the range of 4.2803%-4.1132% during the day.

• European Bonds: At the close in Europe, the benchmark yield on the 10-year German Treasury in the Eurozone rose by 0.7 basis points. The yield on the 2-year German Treasury rose by 1.0 basis point. The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury rose by 0.6 basis points. The yield on the 2-year UK bonds rose by 1.1 basis points. The yield on the 10-year French Treasury fell by 0.7 basis points, and the yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury fell by 2.8 basis points.

The USD index rose and then fell back, the Japanese yen briefly fell below 151, attempting to recover 150 before Powell's speech. The offshore RMB rose by over 200 points, briefly breaking above 7.27 yuan. The French government is about to dissolve, and the euro erased its intraday gains in the US stock market's after-hours trading. Bitcoin futures briefly rose to around 0.1 million dollars.

• USD: The USD index DXY remained roughly flat, at 106.380 points. At 22:09 Beijing time, it reached a daily high of 106.702 points, then significantly fell back, updating the daily low to 106.090 points at 01:33 after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at 02:40 (which lasted less than 30 minutes). The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.03% to 1280.81 points, with an intraday trading range of 1284.81-1278.92 points.

• Non-US currencies: The euro is roughly flat against the dollar at 1.0511, refreshed the lowest of the day at 1.0473 at 22:09, then rebounded, refreshing the day's high at 1.0544 at 23:25, erasing intraday gains after the French government faced a no-confidence vote, and headed back towards the day's low; the british pound against the dollar rose by 0.21% to 1.27, while the dollar against the swiss franc fell by 0.18% to 0.8845; among commodity currencies, the australian dollar against the dollar fell by 0.85%, as third-quarter GDP data was below expectations, triggering interest rate cut bets. The new zealand dollar against the dollar fell by 0.54%, while the dollar against the canadian dollar rose by 0.04%. The south korean won against the dollar once rose by 1%, as the martial law in south korea was lifted after more than six hours.

• Japanese yen: The yen against the dollar fell by 0.69% at the end of the day to 150.64 yen, refreshed the lowest of the day at 151.23 yen in pre-market trading, and rose to around 150 yen before Powell's speech.

• Offshore renminbi (CNH): The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the dollar rebounded by 222 points at the end of the day to 7.2776 yuan, trading overall within the range of 7.3063-7.2673 yuan during the day.

• Cryptos: The largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin futures, rose by 2.33% at the end of the day to 98,780.00 USD, having previously risen to around 0.1 million USD at 04:49 Beijing time (less than fifteen minutes before the US market closed). The second-largest, ethereum, rose more than 6.00% at the end of the day to 3,893.50 USD, having refreshed the day's high to 3,949.00 USD at 04:25. XRP momentarily quoted at 2.4230, down more than 7.70% during the day.

Last week, the US EIA reported a larger-than-expected decline in crude oil inventories, and the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday may again delay production increases, both of which support oil prices, but slowing economic data in Europe and the US drags down the outlook for oil demand. US oil dropped nearly 2.1% intraday to below 68.50 USD:

• US oil: WTI January crude oil futures closed down 1.40 USD, a decrease of 2.00%, at 68.54 USD per barrel. US oil fell nearly 2.1% at the lowest point of the day, breaking below 68.50 USD.

• Brent oil: February crude oil futures closed down 1.31 USD, a decrease of about 1.78%, at 72.31 USD per barrel. Brent oil fell nearly 1.9% to around 72.20 USD at the lowest point of the day.

• Natural gas: US January natural gas futures closed up 0.03% at 3.0430 USD per million British thermal units.

The slowdown in US economic data raised interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks in places like the Middle East, Lebanon, South Korea, and France increased demand for safe-haven assets, with spot gold peaking over 0.5% during the session, approaching 2660 dollars. The simultaneous decline in US Treasury yields and the dollar supported a broad rise in London industrial metals.

• Gold: COMEX gold futures for February rose 0.22% in the closing session, reported at 2673.90 dollars per ounce. Spot gold reached a peak of over 0.5% during US midday trading, breaking through 2657 dollars, and finished the session up 0.24%, reported at 2649.78 dollars per ounce.

• Silver: COMEX silver futures for March rose 1.11% in the closing session, reported at 31.840 dollars per ounce. Spot silver reached a peak of over 1.4% during US midday trading, nearing 31.50 dollars, and finished the session up 1.04%, reported at 31.2915 dollars per ounce.

• Most London industrial metals rose, with London aluminum up over 1%: London copper fell by 28 dollars, reported at 9083 dollars per ton. COMEX copper futures fell 0.10%, reported at 4.1980 dollars per pound. London zinc rose by 4 dollars, reported at 3099 dollars per ton. London aluminum rose by 37 dollars, reported at 2646 dollars per ton. London lead rose by 7 dollars, reported at 2086 dollars per ton. London nickel rose by 92 dollars, reported at 16107 dollars per ton. London tin rose by 210 dollars, reported at 29034 dollars per ton. London cobalt remained flat, reported at 24300 dollars per ton.

Editor/Lambor