公司受益于国内智算网络建设，交换机和AI 服务器有望快速增长，公司保持政企和云计算行业领先地位。国内智算中心、超算中心加快部署，算力规模快速增长，其中互联网、政府等行业需求靠前，公司作为政企领域交换机主要供应商，龙头地位稳固；51.2T 800G CPO 硅光数据中心交换机、G7 系列模块化异构算力服务器、液冷服务器、AIGC 灵犀一体机等产品陆续发布，可满足大模型训练等多种智算需求，随国产算力建设加快，公司由AIin ALL 到AI for ALL 赋能百业。Key points of investment:
The company released the 24Q3 performance report. 2024Q1-3 achieved revenue of 58.839 billion yuan, +6.56% year over year; net profit to mother of 1.582 billion yuan, +2.65% year over year; net profit after deduction of 1.388 billion yuan to mother, +6.91% year over year. 24Q3 achieved revenue of 20.889 billion yuan, +8.97% YoY; net profit to mother 0.581 billion yuan, +12.06% YoY; net profit of 0.495 billion yuan after deduction, +9.00% YoY.
Incident reviews:
The company benefits from the construction of domestic intelligent computing networks. Switches and AI servers are expected to grow rapidly, and the company maintains a leading position in the government, enterprise and cloud computing industries. Domestic intelligent computing centers and supercomputing centers are being deployed at an accelerated pace, and the scale of computing power is growing rapidly. As the main supplier of switches in the government and enterprise sector, the company has a stable leading position; products such as 51.2T 800G CPO silicon optical data center switches, G7 series modular heterogeneous computing power servers, liquid cooled servers, and AIGC Lingxi all-in-one computers have been released one after another to meet various intelligent computing needs such as large-scale model training. As domestic computing power construction accelerates, the company is empowering all industries from AIIN ALL to AI for ALL.
The company's operator business has been expanding smoothly in recent years, and continues to win bids for operator collection projects. In terms of ICT equipment collection, in 2023, Xinhua 3 won the bid for a number of major equipment collection, including China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. CR cluster routers won the bid for the first time in China Telecom's procurement. The deployment share of high-end routers and BRAS products in China's mobile network continues to increase; in terms of network construction, Xinhua 3 has the highest share of operators. The company and operators are rationally and deeply involved in government business, and it is expected that the share of operators will continue to increase.
In addition, overseas is growing rapidly as the company's second-largest growth curve. H3C's own brands continue to expand emerging markets, Ziguangyun has built a hybrid cloud platform to empower all industries, and terminals reuse the advantages of government and enterprise channels to expand business categories such as cloud computers. Specifically, the company's overseas business is mainly based on network construction to expand emerging markets, and its own brands continue to increase in the proportion of international business; Ziguangyun has achieved remarkable results in the urban rail cloud solution, successively winning bids for multiple urban commercial bank projects and urban rail pattern projects; in terms of terminals, the company reuses government and enterprise resources to integrate solutions with terminal products to promote terminal product sales.
Profit forecast, valuation analysis and investment recommendations: The company's net profit for 2024-26 is expected to be 2.399/2.865/3.489 billion yuan, up 14.1%/19.4%/21.8% year-on-year, corresponding EPS of 0.84/1.00/1.22 yuan in 2024-26, and 29.8/25.0/20.5 times on December 3, 2024, giving a “buy-B” rating for the first time.
Risk warning: macroeconomic environment change risk; technology and product development risk; business risk; human resources risk.
