1）坦克：11 月销售2.0 万台，环比+6%、同比+9%，我们预计环比增长主要来自国内市场。零售数据来看，11 月前三周坦克300 周均约1134 台、坦克400/500Hi4-T 分别约1119/963 台，合计环比10 月周均增长约300 台；12 月3 日重磅新车坦克500Hi4Z 开启预售、即将上市、值得期待；2）哈弗：11 月销售7.8 万台，环比+8%、同比+4%。其中，猛龙销售1.1 万台、环比+21%、同比+83%，凭借轻越野的产品差异化优势实现持续增长；零售数据来看，11 月前三周大狗周均3230 台、环比+258 台；H6 周均2725 台、环比+467台；二代H9 周均609 台、较老款贡献显著增量，我们预计国内月销有望维持2-3 千台水平；后续哈弗品牌仍有H6 Hi4 版、H7 上市值得期待；3）魏牌：11 月销售7046 台，环比+9%、同比+146%，其中蓝山贡献6488 台，环比+5%， 11 月15 日全场景NOA 全国开城，同时Coffee OS 3.1 正式发布，在智能交互、数字健康等方面均有升级，广州车展进一步巩固智能化标签，随着公司营销效果持续显现、产品口碑逐步积累、智能化加速落地，预计全新蓝山稳态月销有望维持在6 千台以上水平；Incident: According to Great Wall Motor's announcement, wholesale sales volume in November was 0.127 million units, +9% month-on-month and +4% year-on-year.
Sales resumed positive year-on-year growth in November, showing an inflection point.
In November, the wholesale volume of new energy was 0.036 million units, +12% month-on-month, +15% year-on-year, and the wholesale volume of fuel vehicles was 0.091 million units, +8% month-on-month, which was basically the same as the previous year. According to retail data estimates, in November, the company's retail sales volume of passenger cars was about 0.067 million units, +5% month-on-month. Among them, retail sales of new energy passenger cars were about 0.031 million units, +5% month-on-month. The combined sales volume of pickups is basically consistent with export sales and wholesale sales, so we do not expect an increase in inventory levels.
1) Tanks: Sales of 0.02 million units in November, +6% month-on-month and +9% year-on-year. We expect the month-on-month growth mainly to come from the domestic market. According to retail data, in the first three weeks of November, 300 tanks averaged about 1,134 units and 400/500 Hi4-T tanks, respectively, with a total increase of about 300 units over October; pre-sale of the blockbuster new tank 500Hi4Z began on December 3, which is worth looking forward to; 2) Haval: Selling 0.078 million units in November, +8% month-on-month and +4% year-on-year. Among them, Raptors sold 0.011 million units, +21% month-on-month, and +83% year-on-year, achieving continuous growth with the differentiated advantages of light off-road products; judging from retail data, the first three weeks of November were 3230 big dogs and +258 units month-on-month; H6 averaged 2725 units per week, +467 units month-on-month; the second-generation H9 averaged 609 units per week, contributing significantly. We expect domestic monthly sales to maintain the level of 1,000 units; the subsequent Haval brand still has 2-3 Hi4 and H7 launches;: November Sales of 7046 units, +9% month-on-month and +146%, of which Blue Mountain contributed 6488 units, +5% month-on-month. On November 15, Coffee OS 3.1 was officially released, and there were upgrades in intelligent interaction, digital health, etc. The Guangzhou Auto Show further consolidated the intelligent label. As the company's marketing effects continue to show, product reputation gradually accumulates, and intelligent implementation accelerates. It is expected that the new Blue Mountain will maintain steady monthly sales of more than 6,000 units;
4) Euler: 5806 units sold in November, +4% month-on-month and -42% year over year; 5) Pickup truck: 0.016 million units sold in November, +23% month-on-month and -3% year over year; 6) Exports: 0.043 million units sold in November, -3% month-on-month and +22% year-on-year. October-November is the peak season for overseas sales, and some overseas regions enter the holiday season in December. Considering the shipping cycle, etc., we believe that the slight decline from November to the previous month is a normal fluctuation. Since November, overseas travel has progressed steadily. The GWM brand was launched in Colombia, the 700Hi4T tank and Takayama landed at the Thai Auto Fair, and new stores have opened in Brazil, Mexico, Riyadh and other markets.
Outlook: Comprehensive transformation is beginning to bear fruit and enter a new stage of growth
1) There is a lot of space in the pan-off-road market, and Hi4Z is expected to “rebuild tanks”. On strong off-road tracks, Tandui has excellent sales performance of existing models, and the subsequent launch of the 800Hi4-T tank is expected to contribute to growth; on pan-off-road tracks, compared to the Hi4T, Hi4Z technology has characteristics such as longer battery life, stronger power, lower fuel consumption, and better smoothness. Products such as the tank 500Hi4Z are expected to broaden the target group, accelerate penetration into the urban SUV market, and contribute significant profit elasticity.
2) The transformation is beginning to bear fruit, and the mainstream market is expected to break through. The company has refined polished products, accurate omni-channel marketing, and established direct channels to empower the brand. Raptor and New Blue Mountain have achieved initial success. We believe that Haval's H6Hi4, H7, etc. are listed, and the domestic business is expected to reach an inflection point.
3) Complete range, rich technical reserves, great export potential. The company has rich stocks of categories (pickups, tanks) and power types (HEVs, etc.) and has strong product strength. It is expected that with the introduction and release of subsequent new models and various power types, the localized production and marketing process will accelerate, and monthly sales are expected to maintain an upward trend.
Investment advice: Maintain a “buy-A” rating. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 13.17, 17.55, and 19.66 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current market capitalization PE of 18.0, 13.5, and 12.1 times, respectively. We gave the company a price-earnings ratio of 20 times in 2025, corresponding to a 6-month target price of 41.08 yuan/share risk warning: progress of new products falls short of expectations, sales of new models fall short of expectations; industry price wars continue to intensify, etc.
