According to FX168 Financial News (Europe), on Wednesday (December 4), the international gold price rose slightly, supported by safe-haven demand, while the market awaited U.S. employment data and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for clues about the U.S. interest rate reduction path.
As of the time of writing, spot gold remained stable around $2,640.
Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities, stated: "Due to increasing geopolitical tensions in South Asia and Europe, safe-haven bids have driven a slight appreciation of gold."
According to the South Korean National Assembly news on the afternoon of the 4th, six opposition parties in South Korea jointly initiated an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk-yeol, which was submitted to the National Assembly that afternoon. It is reported that the impeachment motion will be formally presented to the National Assembly tomorrow, and it is expected that voting will occur from the 6th to the 7th of this month.
Late at night the previous day, Yoon Suk-yeol suddenly announced a state of emergency, which was immediately lifted after being voted down by the National Assembly. This brief state of emergency triggered the largest political crisis in decades for the fourth largest economy in Asia.
The opposition holds the overwhelming majority in the National Assembly composed of 300 members, and only requires a few defections from the president's party to achieve the two-thirds majority needed to pass the motion. Once the president is impeached by the National Assembly, he is suspended, and the case is then handled by the Constitutional Court. A vote of approval from six out of nine judges is required to confirm the impeachment. Regardless of the Constitutional Court's ruling, the impeached president cannot govern domestic affairs or engage in foreign affairs during the suspension.
According to reports from Yonhap News Agency, based on information released by the presidential office, the senior aides of the presidential office, including the chief of staff, director of the National Security Office, director of the policy office, and chief secretaries at or above those levels, collectively expressed their intention to resign due to the impact of the emergency declaration.
Danny Russel, vice president of the Asian Social Policy Institute in the USA, stated: "South Korea, as a nation, has escaped a calamity, but President Yoon may have shot himself in the foot."
On the other hand, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier bypassed the National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament, on the 2nd to forcibly pass a social security bill, provoking strong dissatisfaction from far-right and left-wing parties. Relevant lawmakers have submitted motions to prepare for Barnier's impeachment.
A vote of no confidence could lead to the downfall of Barnier's government, making this new government, which was just established in early September, the first French government to fall due to a vote of no confidence since 1962. If the motion passes, Barnier would also become the prime minister with the shortest term since the establishment of the Fifth Republic of France in 1958.
Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic or political uncertainty.
The ADP employment report in the USA will be released at 21:15 on Wednesday Hong Kong time, while the non-farm payroll report will be published on Friday. Powell is scheduled to make a speech later that day, which may be the last public address before the Federal Reserve's December meeting.
Meanwhile, data on Tuesday indicated that job vacancies in the USA modestly increased in October, while layoffs decreased. A strong employment report could make the Federal Reserve more cautious about interest rate cuts.
According to the FedWatch tool of the CME Group, traders expect a probability of about 73% for the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points this month, with a cumulative rate cut expected to be 80 basis points by the end of 2025.
In a low-interest rate environment, non-yielding gold performs remarkably.
Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA Asia Pacific, stated that with trade tensions escalating and the US budget deficit potentially facing pressure, the long-term bullish trend of gold remains solid.