On December 4, Financial Associated Press reported (Reporter Zhou Xiaoya) that familiar qdii funds are frequently imposing purchase limits and premium situations are occurring again.

On December 4, Morgan Fund released an announcement regarding adjustments to large investments, regular and fixed investments, and conversion and transfer business for its Morgan s&p 500 index fund (qdii). Starting from December 5, the fund's purchase limit will be reduced to 100 yuan and 10 dollars.

This follows the fund's last announcement regarding the adjustment of purchase limits just three trading days ago. Morgan Fund stated that the reason is to ensure the stable operation of the fund and to protect the interests of fund share holders.

In addition to the adjustment of purchase limits, there has also been a concentrated warning of risks from qdii funds recently, with more than 15 relevant announcements issued since December. As of today's market close, the premium rate of 7 cross-border etfs has exceeded 4%, with several products already alerting high premium risks for nearly 10 consecutive trading days.

The purchase limits have been reduced twice in the past week.

Specifically, the single-day purchase limit for each fund account under the Morgan s&p 500 index fund (qdii) for a single renminbi share category is set at 100 yuan (including 100 yuan) for cumulative purchases, regular investments, and conversion transfers.

The cumulative purchase limit for single-day purchases and regular investments for a single dollar share category per fund account is set at 10 dollars (including 10 dollars). For any excess amount, the fund manager has the right to refuse.

In fact, last Friday, the fund also announced that starting from December 2, the subscription limit would be reduced from 0.01 million yuan and 1,000 USD in early November to 1,000 yuan and 100 USD.

In addition to Morgan's s&p 500, the link fund of Huaxia s&p 500 etf also announced a suspension of subscriptions on November 29. Tianhong s&p 500 reduced the subscription limit from the previous 0.2 million yuan to 0.02 million yuan starting from November 19.

Fidelity's asia yield bond (qdii) also recently intensified the subscription limit. First, on November 28, limits were placed on individual institutional clients for the fund's RMB E-class shares cumulative daily amount exceeding 0.01 million yuan (excluding 0.01 million yuan) for subscription and regular fixed investment applications.

Subsequently, starting today (December 4), the fund's RMB A and C-class shares daily cumulative subscription limit is reduced from 0.01 million yuan to 1,000 yuan. Subscriptions and regular fixed investment applications from a single fund account exceeding 1,000 yuan (excluding 1,000 yuan) are suspended. If a single fund account's cumulative application amount exceeds 1,000 yuan, the right to refuse will be exercised.

Fidelity's global bonds (qdii) will suspend large subscriptions exceeding 0.01 million yuan for individual institutional clients for the fund's RMB E-class shares starting today.

Since December, premium risk notifications have exceeded 15.

During the period of frequent reductions in subscription limits, on-site qdii funds have recently frequently alerted premium risks. According to incomplete statistics from the Financial Association reporter, more than 15 related announcements have been cumulatively issued by various funds in the first four days of December.

Huaxia s&p 500 etf, invesco s&p cons stap etf, E Fund crude oil etf, and Cathay s&p 500 etf all issued premium risk alerts yesterday.

Among them, the csi cons stap etf has warned of premium risks for eight consecutive trading days since after the close on November 24, during which the fund's IOPV premium and discount rate remained above 5%. The s&p 500 etf from Guotai also warned of premium risks seven times recently, with the premium and discount rate exceeding 10% at one point.

The Invesco Great Wall s&p cons etf also recently issued six premium risk warning announcements, highlighting risks while also experiencing trading day suspensions, during which the fund's premium rate reached as high as 19.99% at one point.

As of today's closing, the premium rate of the Invesco Great Wall s&p cons etf is 9.79%, while the s&p 500 etf from Guotai also exceeds 9%. The s&p 500 etf from Bosera and Huaxia Fund also has a premium exceeding 5%.

Accompanying the high premiums is active trading. As of today's closing, the Invesco Great Wall s&p cons etf traded over 0.6 billion yuan, while earlier, on November 28, the fund's trading volume exceeded 2 billion yuan, a peak level since listing; the Bosera s&p 500 etf also exceeded 0.3 billion yuan in trading volume today, with a daily trading volume exceeding 1 billion yuan at one point recently.

The sustained investment heat is also related to the continuously strengthening trend of the s&p 500. Last week, US stocks continued to rise, with the s&p 500 index reaching a historic high. The net value return of related s&p 500 etfs over the past month exceeded 6%, while the gain of the s&p cons etf surpassed 10%.

Looking ahead, recent views from Bosera Fund mentioned that after fully accounting for previous factors, current assets have entered a relatively calm stage, waiting for new catalysts. US inflation expectations have receded, and expectations for interest rate cuts have increased, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the December meeting rising from 53% to 66%, and a pause in rate cuts in January, with potential rate cuts of 25bps in March and September of 2025.

The Dongzheng Derivatives Research Institute recently analyzed that as of December 3, 492 companies in the s&p 500 have announced their third-quarter earnings for 2024, accounting for 97.8%. The third-quarter EPS of the s&p 500 grew by 5.6% year-on-year, a decline from an 11.8% increase in the previous quarter, maintaining positive growth for five consecutive quarters.

The institute analyzed that current corporate profitability is good, and the earnings recovery still has a certain degree of sustainability. Since November, market expectations for full-year 2024 earnings have seen a bottoming rebound, and optimism about profit growth for the coming year remains strong.

From a valuation perspective, the current position has fully priced in future growth, with the current dynamic PE at 22 times, which is close to a 20-year high. The short-term economic resilience and optimistic expectations for future policy effects support this valuation, but the market's overestimation of expectations may limit future upward potential.