FX168 Financial News Agency (Asia-Pacific) reports that on Wednesday (December 4), Asian stock markets generally declined, as traders faced a political storm in south korea. In south korea, President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law but revoked it just hours later, while a no-confidence vote in France pushed the euro into the spotlight.
The benchmark KOSPI index in south korea dropped by 1.3%, bringing its year-to-date decline to over 7%, making it the worst-performing major stock market in asia this year. This trend left the MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding japan) index largely unchanged, with one of its key component stocks being Samsung Electronics. Despite the downturn in the south korean market, most asian markets rose. #Decision Analysis#
South korean President Yoon Suk-yeol stated on Wednesday that he would lift the martial law declared a few hours earlier, relinquishing his confrontation with parliament. Parliament had previously unanimously rejected his decision to ban political activities.
Although the martial law itself has been lifted, this incident has increased uncertainty in the political and economic fields of south korea, said Min Joo Kang, a senior economist at ing groep. We are concerned that these events might affect south korea's sovereign credit rating, although this risk has not been determined yet. However, it is indeed a possible scenario.
The south korean Ministry of Finance stated that it is prepared to provide unlimited liquidity to the financial markets if necessary. According to south korea's consolidated communications agency, financial regulators are ready to deploy a 10 trillion won (approximately 7.07 billion usd) stock market stabilization fund.
The south korean won has remained stable, supported by suspected government intervention, but is still close to the two-year low reached on Tuesday night.
The unfolding of events brings some uncertainty that may trigger risk aversion. However, south korean authorities appear to be taking swift action to stabilize the market, and the impact is expected to be temporary, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank.
Nevertheless, the turbulence in east asian markets is exacerbating global uncertainty. Investors are already under pressure due to political unrest in France, which is affecting the euro's performance, with the current euro/usd exchange rates at 1.05.
Since the beginning of November, the euro has dropped by 4%. At that time, investors began preparing for the heavy tariff policies that the incoming Trump administration might implement.
French equity index futures fell by 0.11%, while European equity index futures remained relatively unchanged ahead of the vote on the no-confidence motion in the French Parliament on Wednesday. This vote is almost certain to overturn the fragile coalition government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
"If the government collapses, emergency legislation could be passed to avoid a government shutdown... The yield spread between French and German 10-year government bonds may further widen, which would be unfavorable for the euro," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
On a macro level, investors are looking for more clues to determine the Federal Reserve's policy path for next year, especially with the highly anticipated employment report for November due out this Friday. Data shows that job vacancies in the USA surged in October, while layoffs fell to their lowest level in a year and a half, indicating that the labor market, although slowing, remains in an orderly state.
The market currently sees a 72% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month and expects a cumulative cut of 80 basis points by the end of next year.
Federal Reserve officials stated that they still believe inflation is trending down towards the 2% target and hinted at support for further rate cuts in the future. However, at the rate decision meeting two weeks later, no officials explicitly supported or opposed immediate action.
The current focus is on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, who is expected to give his last public remarks before the meeting on Wednesday.
The usd (a measure of the dollar's performance against six major currencies) is currently at 106.3. Due to unexpectedly weak economic data, the market anticipates an earlier rate cut in Australia, causing the australian dollar to fall to a four-month low, down 0.7% to 0.6442 usd.
In terms of csi commodity equity index, oil prices rose slightly, continuing to rise after more than 2% increase in the previous trading day. Reasons include Israel's threat to attack the Lebanese state if the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah breaks down, as well as market expectations that OPEC+ will announce an extension of the production cut plan this week.