长城2024 年11 月销量达12.7 万辆，国内销量环比提升明显。1）整体情况：11 月总销量127,394 辆，同比+3.7%，环比+9.1%，国内销量84,208 万辆，同比-3.6%，环比+16.3%；其中新能源销量35,999 辆，同比+15.2%，环比+12.4%，新能源乘用车销量占比达32.3%，同比+2.9pct，环比+1.4pct。累计销量来看，1-11 月累计销量109.8 万辆，同比-1.8%，新能源累计销量28.0 万辆，同比+20.5%，新能源乘用车销量占比达29.8%，同比+4.9pct。Description of the event
Great Wall Motor announced production and sales announcements for November 2024.
Incident comments
The sales volume of Great Wall reached 0.127 million vehicles in November 2024, and domestic sales increased significantly from month to month. 1) Overall situation: Total sales volume in November was 127,394 vehicles, +3.7% year over month, +9.1% month on month; domestic sales volume was 842.08 million units, -3.6% year on year, +16.3% month on month; of these, new energy sales volume was 35,999 units, +15.2% year on year, +12.4% month on month, and new energy passenger vehicle sales accounted for 32.3%, +2.9 pct year on month. Looking at cumulative sales, the cumulative sales volume for January-November was 1.098 million units, -1.8% year-on-year, and cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 0.28 million units, +20.5% year-on-year. The share of NEV passenger vehicle sales reached 29.8%, +4.9 pct year on year.
2) By brand: In November, the Haval brand sold 78,386 units, +4.5% year over month, +7.9% month over month, with Raptor sales increasing to 11,012 units; tank brand sales volume was 20,189 units, +8.7% year over month, +5.6% month on month; WEY brand sales volume was 7,046 units, +145.8% year on month, +8.6% month on month, of which Blue Mountain sold 6,488 vehicles, +218.8% year on month; Euler brand sold 5,806 units, +4.1% month on month; Great Wall pickup truck sales 15,853 vehicles, -2.7% YoY, +23.0% YoY. 3) Overseas: In November, Great Wall achieved overseas sales volume of 43,186 vehicles, +21.7% year over year, -2.8% month on month, accounting for 33.9% of sales volume, +5.0 pct year on year, and -4.1 pct month on month. In January-November, overseas sales totaled 0.412 million vehicles, +45.8% year-on-year. Annual sales are expected to exceed 0.45 million vehicles, accounting for 37.5% of sales, or +12.2 pcts year-on-year.
The company accelerates its global layout, resolves the transformation of new energy sources, and actively transforms and innovates, and is expected to continue to boost both sales and performance.
1) On the domestic side, the Great Wall has fully adjusted the three dimensions of product, channel, and supply chain. The company is steadfastly deepening the transformation of new energy sources. The product focus is on plugging into the hybrid circuit. New cars are clearly positioned to accelerate the launch of smart new energy products. Various new cars from various brands such as Haval, Tank, WEY, Euler, and Pickup are expected to contribute significant increases in the future. 2) In terms of going overseas, the company's “ONE GWM” strategy has accelerated overseas. The overseas market has covered more than 170 countries and regions, and there are more than 1,300 overseas sales channels. While export sales continue to grow, the Rayong factory in Thailand has mass-produced various models, and the Brazilian project is also progressing steadily, which will accelerate the company's sales growth in the future. 3) In the era of intelligence, data and algorithms are the core of competition. Great Wall Motor actively promotes sales volume and intelligent model development, and the strength of intelligence is expected to continue to strengthen in the future.
Investment advice: In the short to medium term, the company's accelerated overseas expansion combined with the increase in the share of high-value models such as domestic tanks is expected to drive the company's sales and performance growth. In the long run, the company's four major expansion strategies will open up room for long-term sales growth, and intelligent transformation will open up profit space for the entire industry chain. The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 12.69, 16.05, and 17.95 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding A-share PE is 17.6X, 13.9X, and 12.5X, respectively, and the corresponding Hong Kong PE is 7.8X, 6.1X, and 5.5X, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
1. Industry price wars weaken corporate profits;
2. The global economic recovery fell short of expectations.